ICT explains that his recent Twitter Space was meant to create urgency, because many people get complacent and assume they have unlimited time. On Father’s Day, he reflects on wanting his message to motivate rather than depress listeners: prepare yourself, improve your skill set, and make practical home preparations (extra food/medicine) in case markets temporarily shut down due to major events (like after 9/11).
He illustrates the importance of realistic expectations by describing his early trading: working a demanding route job, obsessively watching a small quote device taped to his windshield, placing trades via pay phones, using simplistic “pivot number” ideas, taking oversized positions, and often trading without stop losses. This reckless, gambling-style approach led him to blow multiple accounts and created heavy stress.
His core point: don’t interpret warnings as a reason to quit—use them as fuel to focus, build competence, and be ready. If you develop real trading ability, opportunities for funded accounts, partnerships, or using your own capital can appear quickly, especially in turbulent times—failing is not trying at all.
ICT opens a Twitter Spaces session after returning home from helping his daughter replace a car that was totaled. He notes seeing fewer tractor trailers and fuel tankers on the road, which he frames as a sign of worsening supply-chain conditions.
He then delivers a long warning that major disruption is coming within the next 12–18 months: rising fuel/food costs, shortages, social unrest, and a possible “black swan” trigger that could lead to emergency powers/martial-law conditions. He argues the public is being manipulated by media and a “ruling class,” claims elections are controlled, and says crypto is an engineered trap that will ultimately go to zero—while blockchain will be used later for a new, more controllable system. His practical advice is to stop chasing luxury/status spending and instead prepare with nonperishable food, water/filters, medicine, and basic supplies because “you can’t eat your P&L,” and money may be useless if shelves are empty.
After marking the end of the “tinfoil hat” portion, he shifts to trading. He explains how he traded early on while working a job: using the daily chart for directional bias (18- and 40-day EMAs) and the hourly chart with oversold indicators (stochastics/Williams %R) and bullish divergence to time entries. He learned his early success came mainly from being aligned with higher-timeframe (weekly/monthly) bias, and he developed concepts around stop hunts (“shadow boxes,” later influenced by the “turtle soup” idea). He emphasizes that indicators are “training wheels” and that real consistency comes from reading market narrative/structure (bias, liquidity draws, fair value gaps, and stop runs). He ends by saying he’ll resume posting/teaching content soon and urges listeners to stay safe.
ICT begins with brief technical/audio checks and a personal update: his daughter’s car was totaled in an accident, but she and everyone involved are unharmed. He mentions the difficulty of finding reasonably priced vehicles due to low inventory and inflated used-car prices.
He then shifts to trading education, reflecting on a volatile week driven by scheduled high-impact news (jobless claims and CPI). Although his bearish bias was correct, price moved too quickly after the release and “ran away,” offering no low-risk entry based on his models. He emphasizes that missing moves is normal—especially for new traders—and that frustration and “FOMO” are toxic mindsets. Traders must accept uncertainty, manage losses professionally, and understand that opportunities repeat over time; studying at least a full year helps build this perspective.
He advises planning around the economic calendar for volatility rather than caring about the news data itself, and he reiterates key ICT concepts: markets seek liquidity and often “manipulate” (e.g., a Judas swing) before the main move—though sometimes that setup doesn’t appear. Finally, he cautions against blindly copying others’ entries/stops (which can cluster liquidity and invite stop-runs), and says the goal is to understand likely market direction and liquidity targets, not mimic someone else’s exact trades.
– Trading guidance: avoid trading Thursday/Friday (and Wednesday afternoon) during Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) week because market symmetry and probability structures break down; treat FOMC similarly (don’t trade ahead of announcements; consider trading after if volatility creates clear edges). Focus early in the week (Monday–Tuesday) for higher-probability setups.
– Method and risk discipline: look for repeatable, framed price-action setups (not one-minute noise). Emphasizes position sizing, managing losses, and that short-term wins on risky days are often luck, not skill. Accept losses as part of learning; don’t over-leverage.
– Teaching philosophy: he prefers hands-on mentoring—showing charts and reasoning—over abstract instructions. Students must invest time, practice, and follow rules (don’t cherry-pick advice). Real proof is a growing trading account, not diplomas or hype.
– Personal origin and motivation: he recounts hard early years (vending routes, being underpaid, multiple blown accounts in the 1990s) that drove him to learn trading. Those struggles shape his desire to mentor others so they avoid the same mistakes.
– Views on education and independence: argues college can be a poor investment for many, and trading (or entrepreneurship) can provide financial independence and uncapped income. Encourages investing time and money in skill development instead of consumer habits.
– Mentoring his son: he’s actively coaching his son Caleb to build a simple, repeatable low-risk strategy (e.g., small fixed-point gains repeated daily), focusing on confidence, temperament, and process over flashy results. He’s protective about public posting of live statements to avoid broker issues.
– Faith and character: credits his perseverance to faith and family influences; stresses personal responsibility, humility, and the importance of grinding through hardship rather than seeking validation from others.
– Final message: persistence, disciplined practice, and following a proven process are the path to consistent profitability. If you do the work and stop doing the things he warns against, you can achieve financial independence and lasting results.
– Session setup: host tests audio and explains this will be a short, informal morning discussion while he watches opening price action.
– Market context (May 20, 2022): quiet Friday with no major news; end-of-week dynamics matter. Thursday had a large down-range “outside day with a down close.” SPX and Nasdaq failed to make a new low versus May 12, while the Dow did — the averages are not all confirming (dow theory divergence).
– Technical takeaways: – Focus on the E‑mini S&P (5/15‑minute frames used in examples). Key levels mentioned: ~39.50, 39.15¼, 38.55 (ES equivalents throughout the talk); Nasdaq ~11,950. – Fair Value Gap (FVG) and liquidity sweeps are central concepts: identify imbalance candles (example: the 8:10 five‑minute candle), note where buy/sell stops rest, and anticipate runs to old highs/lows (low‑resistance liquidity runs).
– High‑probability trades are one‑sided moves where the opposing case is hard to justify given the narrative (e.g., clear liquidity run toward an old high or old low). These “unicorn” setups don’t occur every day. – Intraday approach & practical rules: – On choppy/consolidation days (50/50), refrain from active trading; wait for the last hour or clear high‑probability setups.
– Tape‑read, annotate, backtest and forward‑test in demo/paper first — don’t rush into live trading.
– Manage risk: use stops, scale out (take bulk off in the middle of range), avoid excessive leverage, and know when to stop trading after losses. – Avoid chasing breakouts (late entries) — enter logically where price is likely to be drawn, not after confirmation by large moves.
– Psychology & pedagogy:
– Trading is hard because of human flaws (discipline, perfectionism, fear). Expect uncertainty, failure and emotional fatigue; these are part of learning.
– The mentor emphasizes independent thinking: teach students to verify patterns themselves rather than parroting rules or expecting hand‑holding.
– Warns against social‑media “influencers” who glamorize results without discussing risk or providing verifiable live statements.
– Personal notes: anecdotes about early career mistakes (chasing breakouts, poor stops, high commissions), pride in mentoring his children, and intention to keep teaching without sales pitches. He’s testing live streaming and will post recordings.
– Bottom line: study price action, learn to recognize FVGs, liquidity sweeps and one‑sided liquidity runs, trade conservatively on consolidation days, backtest/observe extensively, and prioritize risk control and psychological discipline over chasing flashy setups.
