Tag: seasonality

  • Navigating Markets & High Probability Trading | May 29, 2023

    Summary:

    – Purpose and tone: The speaker (ICT) reviews his trader-education philosophy, trading evolution, and life lessons—direct, blunt, and aimed at forcing students to take responsibility and do the work.

    – Personal context and decision: He’s stepping back from active public mentoring (ending Inner Circle Trader activity in November) to regain balance and spend time with family. His videos and core content will remain available.

    – Responsibility and mindset: Trading success is 100% personal responsibility. Quit blaming tools, courses, influencers or the market. Most failures come from internal faults—laziness, impulsiveness, poor discipline—and not from the method.

    – Learning curve and realism: Trading requires time, repetition and emotional work. You can’t shortcut the experience; losses, mistakes and “scar tissue” teach essential lessons. Expect years of learning, not instant success.

    – Methodology focus: He emphasizes naked price action and top-down analysis (weekly → daily → 60‑minute → intraday). Avoid over-reliance on indicators; study price, time and liquidity (fair value gaps, order blocks, inefficiencies).

    – The “silver bullet” concept: A time-based intraday setup (60‑minute window / “kill zones”) that repeatedly produces tradable opportunities—use economic calendar timing, look for imbalances on low timeframes (drop from 5m → 4m → 3m → 2m → 1m) and trade precise, repeatable entries rather than chasing noise.

    – Seasonality and data: He endorses using reliable seasonality data (e.g., Steve Moore) as a macro input, but warns seasonality is not infallible—blend with price action and context.

    – Demo teaching & execution: He teaches and demonstrates in demo accounts to avoid legal/advice issues and to remove emotional attachment; practicing in demo is valid and valuable. Real-money execution and psychological readiness remain the student’s responsibility.

    – Risk management & mental capital: Know your real mental risk tolerance (mental capital) and size positions accordingly. Build “mental capital” by experiencing small, repeated wins and by pausing to consolidate after success (avoid chasing sugar highs).

    – Critique of influencers and drama: Drama/“clout” marketing is short-term and damages brands. Focus on substance, honesty, and consistent teaching. He calls out opportunistic rebranding and plagiarism in the space.

    – Teaching style and limits: He has shared much publicly, won’t teach certain proprietary items outside family, and won’t run future mentorships the way he did. He encourages students to study core content thoroughly and journal their work.

    – Human lessons & priorities: Trading can consume life; money doesn’t compensate for lost family time. He urges students to balance family and trading, avoid letting trading become their whole identity, and to use success to do good (charity, helping others).

    – Call to action for creators: Be honest about struggles and share real execution and lessons (including failures). Authenticity helps viewers and grows meaningful communities.

    Overall: trading is technical but primarily psychological; success comes from disciplined, time-based price-action study, honest self-work, consistent risk management, and patience—not shortcuts, drama, or idolizing gurus.

    Quiz

    1) Why does ICT say he often uses a demo account when teaching?
    A. Because demo accounts are more profitable
    B. To teach without acting as a financial advisor / to be outside legal scope
    C. Because he cannot trade real accounts
    D. To hide his methods from students

    2) What does ICT recommend new traders learn first?
    A. Complex indicators like RSI and CCI
    B. Supply and demand order blocks only
    C. Naked price action (price only, no indicators)
    D. High-frequency scalping techniques

    3) What is ICT’s “Silver Bullet” concept?
    A. A new indicator for long-term investing
    B. A 60-minute time-window intraday setup (a timing model/entry method)
    C. A brokerage he recommends
    D. A seasonal calendar he sells

    4) Whose seasonal tendency research/data does ICT cite and recommend for studying seasonal tendencies?
    A. Larry Williams
    B. Jake Bernstein
    C. Steve Moore
    D. ICT himself

    Answer key with evidence:

    1) B — “To teach without acting as a financial advisor / to be outside legal scope”
    Evidence: “Yes, I’m absolutely using the demo because I’m teaching and I’m outside the scope of any legality by doing that because I’m not acting as a financial advisor.” (00:12:56,082 –> 00:13:01,322)

    2) C — “Naked price action”
    Evidence: “They should learn primarily naked price action.” (00:57:36,732 –> 00:57:39,792)

    3) B — “A 60-minute time-window intraday setup”
    Evidence: “I’ve literally removed all of the f***ing guesswork and reduced it down to a 60 minute time window. Gave it a cool ass name, the silver bullet…” (01:34:02,127 –> 01:34:13,317)

    4) C — “Steve Moore”
    Evidence: “And I got them from Steve Moore.” (00:32:03,257 –> 00:32:06,537)