ICT Archivist

Tag: silver bullet

  • Navigating Markets & High Probability Trading | May 29, 2023

    Summary:

    – Purpose and tone: The speaker (ICT) reviews his trader-education philosophy, trading evolution, and life lessons—direct, blunt, and aimed at forcing students to take responsibility and do the work.

    – Personal context and decision: He’s stepping back from active public mentoring (ending Inner Circle Trader activity in November) to regain balance and spend time with family. His videos and core content will remain available.

    – Responsibility and mindset: Trading success is 100% personal responsibility. Quit blaming tools, courses, influencers or the market. Most failures come from internal faults—laziness, impulsiveness, poor discipline—and not from the method.

    – Learning curve and realism: Trading requires time, repetition and emotional work. You can’t shortcut the experience; losses, mistakes and “scar tissue” teach essential lessons. Expect years of learning, not instant success.

    – Methodology focus: He emphasizes naked price action and top-down analysis (weekly → daily → 60‑minute → intraday). Avoid over-reliance on indicators; study price, time and liquidity (fair value gaps, order blocks, inefficiencies).

    – The “silver bullet” concept: A time-based intraday setup (60‑minute window / “kill zones”) that repeatedly produces tradable opportunities—use economic calendar timing, look for imbalances on low timeframes (drop from 5m → 4m → 3m → 2m → 1m) and trade precise, repeatable entries rather than chasing noise.

    – Seasonality and data: He endorses using reliable seasonality data (e.g., Steve Moore) as a macro input, but warns seasonality is not infallible—blend with price action and context.

    – Demo teaching & execution: He teaches and demonstrates in demo accounts to avoid legal/advice issues and to remove emotional attachment; practicing in demo is valid and valuable. Real-money execution and psychological readiness remain the student’s responsibility.

    – Risk management & mental capital: Know your real mental risk tolerance (mental capital) and size positions accordingly. Build “mental capital” by experiencing small, repeated wins and by pausing to consolidate after success (avoid chasing sugar highs).

    – Critique of influencers and drama: Drama/“clout” marketing is short-term and damages brands. Focus on substance, honesty, and consistent teaching. He calls out opportunistic rebranding and plagiarism in the space.

    – Teaching style and limits: He has shared much publicly, won’t teach certain proprietary items outside family, and won’t run future mentorships the way he did. He encourages students to study core content thoroughly and journal their work.

    – Human lessons & priorities: Trading can consume life; money doesn’t compensate for lost family time. He urges students to balance family and trading, avoid letting trading become their whole identity, and to use success to do good (charity, helping others).

    – Call to action for creators: Be honest about struggles and share real execution and lessons (including failures). Authenticity helps viewers and grows meaningful communities.

    Overall: trading is technical but primarily psychological; success comes from disciplined, time-based price-action study, honest self-work, consistent risk management, and patience—not shortcuts, drama, or idolizing gurus.

    Quiz

    1) Why does ICT say he often uses a demo account when teaching?
    A. Because demo accounts are more profitable
    B. To teach without acting as a financial advisor / to be outside legal scope
    C. Because he cannot trade real accounts
    D. To hide his methods from students

    2) What does ICT recommend new traders learn first?
    A. Complex indicators like RSI and CCI
    B. Supply and demand order blocks only
    C. Naked price action (price only, no indicators)
    D. High-frequency scalping techniques

    3) What is ICT’s “Silver Bullet” concept?
    A. A new indicator for long-term investing
    B. A 60-minute time-window intraday setup (a timing model/entry method)
    C. A brokerage he recommends
    D. A seasonal calendar he sells

    4) Whose seasonal tendency research/data does ICT cite and recommend for studying seasonal tendencies?
    A. Larry Williams
    B. Jake Bernstein
    C. Steve Moore
    D. ICT himself

    Answer key with evidence:

    1) B — “To teach without acting as a financial advisor / to be outside legal scope”
    Evidence: “Yes, I’m absolutely using the demo because I’m teaching and I’m outside the scope of any legality by doing that because I’m not acting as a financial advisor.” (00:12:56,082 –> 00:13:01,322)

    2) C — “Naked price action”
    Evidence: “They should learn primarily naked price action.” (00:57:36,732 –> 00:57:39,792)

    3) B — “A 60-minute time-window intraday setup”
    Evidence: “I’ve literally removed all of the f***ing guesswork and reduced it down to a 60 minute time window. Gave it a cool ass name, the silver bullet…” (01:34:02,127 –> 01:34:13,317)

    4) C — “Steve Moore”
    Evidence: “And I got them from Steve Moore.” (00:32:03,257 –> 00:32:06,537)

  • Time Based Setups & Models – A Chapter Preview | May 6, 2023

    ICT presents a trading philosophy built around time-based setups and models: markets behave predictably at certain daily sessions (London, New York AM, lunch, PM, last hour), and profitable trading comes from anticipating these time-driven, algorithmic volume inflows rather than reacting to price moves.

    Key trading ideas
    – Time matters: schedule your trading around specific high-probability windows and learn the characteristic behaviors of each session.
    – Anticipate, don’t react: identify where liquidity, inefficiencies, order blocks and fair value gaps lie on higher timeframes and expect price to run into or away from them at predictable times.
    – Session rules (briefly): London often produces false breakouts/Judas swings into buy-stops (shorting opportunities); New York typically continues higher-timeframe moves and then forms reversal profiles; lunch hour (11:00–13:00 NY) commonly runs stops to re-accumulate positions; AM/PM “Silver Bullet” windows (~10–11, 14–15 NY) can produce compact continuation moves.
    – Use small, repeatable targets (e.g., 5 handles) and scale up gradually; higher timeframe setups can be the same logic on larger charts but occur less frequently.

    Risk, psychology and process
    – Limit time exposure and trade only what fits your personality and life; master one session/model before adding more.
    – Backtest, tape-read, demo and journal religiously; log setups by time until you desensitize to fear and learn to manage unrealized profits and drawdown.
    – Control impulses: avoid overtrading, social-media influence, FOMO; apply simple rules (e.g., sleep one night after a drawdown).

    Broader context and call to action
    – The speaker warns of systemic risks (currency changes, digital central bank controls, social-credit style controls) and urges practical preparedness (self-reliance, contingency planning).
    – Final message: adopt disciplined, time-based, rule-driven trading, put in the necessary study and journaling, and treat trading as a business to build resilience.

    Quiz

    1) According to ICT, what should a brand-new trader do at the very opening of the market?
    A. Trade aggressively to catch early moves
    B. Avoid trading in the first minute or two
    C. Rely only on indicators for entries
    D. Use maximum leverage to maximize gains

    2) ICT describes the London session “sweet spot” (in New York local time) as which window?
    A. 7:00–9:00 AM
    B. 9:30–11:30 AM
    C. 2:00–4:00 AM
    D. 3:00–5:00 PM

    3) What time does ICT identify as the New York open “Killzone” (New York local time)?
    A. 2:00–5:00 AM
    B. 7:00–10:00 AM
    C. 11:00 AM–1:00 PM
    D. 3:00–5:00 PM

    4) ICT refers to a specific one-hour AM setup often called the “Silver Bullet.” Which hour is that?
    A. 2:00–3:00 AM
    B. 7:00–8:00 AM
    C. 10:00–11:00 AM
    D. 3:00–4:00 PM

    5) Why does ICT argue time-based setups and models can be anticipated reliably?
    A. Because indicators always confirm them
    B. Because social media traders create predictable moves
    C. Because scheduled volume inflows and algorithms produce time-specific behaviors
    D. Because candlestick art forms are the only reliable tool

    Answer Key with evidence:

    1) Correct: B. Avoid trading in the first minute or two
    Evidence: “all right so you don’t want to schedule you’re trading if you’re brand new at the very opening like the first minute or two of trading because you know that now everybody’s in there dog piling in to take trades…” (timestamp ~0:19:14–0:19:33)

    2) Correct: C. 2:00–4:00 AM
    Evidence: “London time between two o’clock in the morning New York local time to 5 A.M… that’s a three hour window and The Sweet Spot is between two o’clock and four o’clock” (timestamp ~0:31:33–0:31:54)

    3) Correct: B. 7:00–10:00 AM
    Evidence: “the New York open Killzone which is seven o’clock to 10 o’clock in New York look time” (timestamp ~0:50:28–0:50:41)

    4) Correct: C. 10:00–11:00 AM
    Evidence: “Silver Bullet inside of the am session that time window is very very specific it’s inside of 60 minutes… all you’re looking for is a continuation… the first one that forms between 10 o’clock and 11. that one you’re going to see that right there” (timestamp ~1:21:21–1:22:28)

    5) Correct: C. Because scheduled volume inflows and algorithms produce time-specific behaviors
    Evidence: “you can set a clock to volume in trading as well just like traffic… you can anticipate setups that will form within those little specific time windows” (timestamp ~0:10:36–0:11:03); and “I’m only really focusing on specific times because those times are algorithmic… if there is an algorithm… most of you know there is” (timestamp ~0:25:13–0:25:24)

  • Equity Concerns When Your Heavens Are Like Brass | April 29, 2023

    Summary:

    – Personal context: ICT took a road trip with his sons to remove himself from the market and control impulsive trading tendencies. He openly discusses struggling with mental illness, impulsiveness, and a lifelong need to “prove” himself—factors that affect trading behavior.

    – Near-miss anecdote: He describes a tense gas-station incident where a likely staged robbery was averted by bluffing and leaving—used as a warning to stay aware and protect yourself physically as well as financially.

    – Current market environment: Markets have been choppy, sideways and lower-probability for big moves (a “scalpers market”), making setups less clean and reliable than in past periods. That makes trading harder now than many expect.

    – Core trading advice:
    – When in doubt, stay out; when you recognize a trade is against you, get out. Don’t pray for a trade to save you.
    – Use rule-based, time-based setups (he highlights 10–11am and 2–3pm windows) rather than trying to be in the market every day.
    – Trade smaller, realistic goals (e.g., a few handles) and be content with consistent, modest wins rather than forcing big returns.
    – Demo-trade to discover your personal weaknesses and patterns before risking real money. Journaling performance is essential.
    – Accept losses as inevitable; trying to avoid all losing trades increases the chance of larger failures.

    – On learning and mentorship: There are no shortcuts—skill-building takes time (years), discipline, and honest self-assessment. Beware of flashy “mentors” selling quick fixes or signal services; focus on sound logic and process.

    – Market outlook and specifics: He referenced seasonal tendencies (possible May→June weakness) and weekly fair-value/liquidity gaps on the ES chart as context for potential moves, explaining that these structural reads guide his decisions.

    – Psychological and life balance: He emphasizes self-care—taking breaks, unplugging, spending time with family—to recalibrate when trading becomes emotionally driven. He reflects on grief, family responsibilities, and the importance of being present outside trading.

    – Final message: Learn who you are, follow a disciplined, rule-based approach, avoid impulsive behavior driven by ego or social media, and give yourself permission to step away until you can trade objectively and safely.

    Overall: the talk is a mix of market analysis, practical risk-management rules, strong emphasis on mental/behavioral fitness, and mentorship urging patience, demo-practice, journaling, and disciplined trading.

    Quiz

    2) In ICT’s talk, what does the phrase “your Heavens are like brass” mean for traders?
    A. Markets are extremely volatile and unpredictable
    B. Prayers or attempts to change outcomes feel unanswered and progress stalls
    C. You should double down on trades because outcomes are certain
    D. It’s a technical indicator for reentry points

    3) What is ICT’s primary recommendation about using demo accounts for new traders?
    A. Demo accounts are a waste of time; start with small real money
    B. Use a demo to learn the platform and discover your personal weaknesses before risking real money
    C. Only use demo accounts to practice one specific pattern repeatedly
    D. Demo accounts should be used only after you pass a funded challenge

    4) What time-based “Silver Bullet” windows does ICT emphasize as recurring opportunities each trading day?
    A. 8:00–9:00 and 12:00–13:00 Eastern
    B. 9:30–10:30 and 14:30–15:30 Eastern
    C. 10:00–11:00 and 14:00–15:00 Eastern
    D. 11:00–12:00 and 15:00–16:00 Eastern

    Answer Key with evidence

    1) Correct: B
    Evidence:
    – “there’s a passage in Deuteronomy… when you ask for help and you send a prayer it doesn’t sound like it’s getting answered… it feels like your Heavens are like brass” (0:27:54–0:28:32) — he links the phrase to prayers feeling unanswered.
    – “your field… is like iron so you can’t plant or harvest anything… so you’re stuck” (0:28:36–0:28:48) — further explanation that progress stalls, applied to trading situations.

    2) Correct: B
    Evidence:
    – “that’s why I teach with a demo that’s why it’s the best way to learn that’s where you need to learn in a laboratory experiment setting where you are not incurring monetary risk” (1:23:56–1:24:04) — he recommends demo to discover yourself without losing money.
    – “learn the broker with the demo and then go in with real money even if it’s a little bit of money” (1:21:21–1:21:23) — he advises using demo first to learn platform and personal patterns.

    3) Correct: C
    Evidence:
    – “you wait for the Silver Bullet that means you wait for a setup between 10 and 11 Eastern Time New York local time” (0:14:42–0:14:56) — he names 10–11 ET as a Silver Bullet window.
    – “there is a fair value Gap that will reach for inefficiencies… between 10 o’clock in the morning and 11 o’clock in the morning… and between two o’clock and three o’clock every single trading day” (1:52:12–1:52:31) — he confirms both 10:00–11:00 and 14:00–15:00 as recurring windows.

  • The Sands of Time… | April 25, 2023

    Summary:

    – Current market is range-bound and low-probability: no clear weekly expansion or one‑sided bias, daily price action is stuck in a small balanced range with wicks both up and down. That makes sustained, high-probability moves unlikely right now.

    – Criteria for high-probability trades: you must be able to identify where the weekly candle will expand to (higher‑timeframe sponsorship) and the daily range should offer sufficient room (he teaches aiming for a range that can potentially deliver ~10 handles for a 5-handle run). Those conditions are not present.

    – Practical advice: preserve capital — don’t force trades in this environment. If the market isn’t giving your model its required signatures, sit out, scalp very small, or use the time to study and backtest. Lucky wins right now are mostly coincidence and can lead to bigger losses if you push.

    – Psychology and discipline: trading requires patience and control. Impulsivity is likened to addiction (alcoholism/gambling); remove temptations if needed, keep written rules, and reward yourself for not trading when conditions are poor. Read Alexander Elder’s Trading for a Living for psychological insights.

    – Macro context: geopolitical risks, bank instability and structural changes (e.g., CBDCs) elevate risk and reduce institutional willingness to assume new risk, contributing to the market’s stagnation.

    – Mentoring stance and personal note: as a mentor he won’t promote trading when his model doesn’t support it — he’s stepped away (traveling in an RV in Florida) to avoid trading impulsively and will return to live analysis when conditions improve (plans to be back on charts next Monday).

    Quiz

    1) According to ICT, what is the primary criterion you must have to consider a trade a high probability setup?
    A. A news catalyst scheduled that day
    B. An understanding of where the weekly candle will expand to
    C. A gap open on the daily chart
    D. Multiple confirmations on one-minute charts

    2) What does ICT advise you to do when the market is in a low probability condition?
    A. Pyramid into positions to force a win
    B. Trade more frequently to find opportunity
    C. Sit still or “do something else”
    D. Follow every social media signal available

    3) For a “high probability five-handle run,” ICT teaches the range should potentially offer how many handles in total?
    A. 5 handles
    B. 8 handles
    C. 10 handles
    D. 15 handles

    4) Which book does ICT recommend as the best for trading psychology and understanding impulsive behavior?
    A. Market Wizards
    B. Trading for a Living by Alexander Elder
    C. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
    D. Thinking, Fast and Slow

    5) How does ICT describe the current market state in this talk?
    A. Low-resistance liquidity runs with clear direction
    B. A balanced trading range with wicks/tails both up and down — a small intraday scalpers market
    C. Strong trending market with institutional sponsorship pushing price
    D. Purely news-driven volatility with no intraday structure

    Answer key with evidence:

    Q1 — B. An understanding of where the weekly candle will expand to.
    Evidence: “number one you have to have some measure of understanding where that Weekly candle is going to expand to” (00:03:14.640–00:03:31.440). Also reiterated: “that Weekly expansion you have to know where is that Weekly candle the one that you’re in right now … you have to have an expectation” (00:20:17.280–00:20:26.940).

    Q2 — C. Sit still or “do something else”.
    Evidence: “if the Market’s not giving you something go do something else” (00:03:33.419–00:03:40.800). And: “I have to sit still” (00:11:09.540–00:11:17.240).

    Q3 — C. 10 handles.
    Evidence: “it needs to have a range to offer at least 10 handles” (00:25:25.919–00:25:41.220). Also: “how many handles does the range have to potentially deliver for you to get a high probability five handle run … 10 handles” (00:25:14.280–00:25:33.960).

    Q4 — B. Trading for a Living by Alexander Elder.
    Evidence: “the beginning of Alexander Elder’s book trading for a living in my opinion … that is so much better” (01:06:57.240–01:07:04.819). He further discusses the book and its psychological sections (01:07:01.680–01:07:10.460).

    Q5 — B. A balanced trading range with wicks/tails both up and down — a small intraday scalpers market.
    Evidence: “look at the daily chart you have Wicks and Tails both in up and down in that range” (00:14:56.399–00:15:03.000). And: “so now that means we’re in a scalpers Market” (00:21:00.900–00:21:05.580). Also: “we are in a point of balance … it’s balanced price has traveled up and down in that range both ways” (00:26:23.940–00:27:04.440).