Summary — key points and takeaways

– Main message: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) (and other high‑impact releases like CPI or FOMC rate announcements) is not a reliably tradable event for most traders — it’s highly unpredictable, volatile, and often manipulated, so it’s essentially a gamble for retail traders.
– Personal stance: The speaker (ICT) admits he cannot predict NFP with repeatable precision and therefore chooses not to trade it. He learned this the hard way by losing accounts early in his career.
– Typical behavior of NFP: fast, whipsaw price moves, large slippage, stops getting run or gapped through; initial “fake” moves are common; short windows (about 8:30–9:00 ET) carry most of the risk.

Practical rules advised:
– Don’t trade into NFP/CPI/FOMC announcements; treat those days as “sit out / observe” days.
– Avoid trading the afternoons of Wednesday and Thursday before NFP; stop trading after the morning session (around 10–11am) on Wednesday to be cautious.
– If trading a news event at all, wait (e.g., ~30 minutes) after the initial reaction before considering trades.
– Always check the economic calendar before trading.
– Risk & money management: preserving capital is the top priority — know what your account can emotionally and financially tolerate, size positions accordingly, and test that tolerance in demo before risking real funds.
– Funded-account warning: don’t assume large funded accounts remove psychological risk — big nominal risks can be emotionally unmanageable and lead to ruin.
– Education and mindset: long‑term success comes from studying price behavior, recognizing when market conditions offer a measurable edge, and learning where you’re likely to fail; avoid chasing social‑media “clout” or one-off demo highlights.
– Specific market notes: ICT mentioned short‑term ES levels he watched as likely liquidity draws near the session (3814 — Jan 3, 2023 daily low; and 3804.5 — Dec 28, 2022 daily low) as examples of how he frames expectations without trading the event.
– Final thought: abstaining from these event days is a disciplined, protective strategy that keeps you in the game long term; there will be plenty of tradable opportunities in calmer, higher‑probability environments.