– Quick 15-minute review of Micro Nasdaq (MNQ); refer to this morning’s full live stream for background. Host may be off tomorrow depending on personal plans.
– Market opened with a large regular-trading-hours opening-range gap (RTHORG) driven by headlines. Price ran up into the daily suspension block area, then rolled over and hit the speaker’s target: the low of the daily suspension block.
– Key technical read: a 9:30–9:31 fair-value gap formed. The presenter emphasizes the rule that candlestick bodies failing to trade into key levels (wicks may touch but bodies do not) is a bearish signature used to anticipate further decline. Price retraced into the lower part of the daily suspension block but failed to reach the upper half/octant—another bearish sign—so the bias remains down toward consequent encroachment unless price behavior changes.
– Caveat: geopolitical developments (missiles/ceasefire reports) can produce volatile overnight/Asian-session moves; the 6:00 (Asia open) price will determine the next actionable bias.
– Trading advice: use less leverage, avoid overtrading, seek confluence, be nimble and accept partial moves.
– Logistics: may post an update around 7:30 on X; otherwise family plans come first.
– Market setup: ICT is watching the micro Nasdaq this morning after a large premium opening-range gap. The primary technical focus is a daily “suspension block” (shaded box) and its lower quadrant — the low of that box is the main target. There is notable sell-side liquidity below current price and minor buy-side above; a break below the block should show range expansion and commitment to the downside.
– Trade plan & risk management: No trade advice is being given, but the presenter would run a very small position (e.g., one contract), take partial profits at predefined targets, protect the stop (move to sidelines if stops are threatened), and avoid letting stops be challenged. Expect retracements to remain within the lower quadrant if the drop is genuine.
– Tape-reading & technique: Emphasizes simple tape-reading — watching 1-minute candles (open/high/low/close and bodies) and liquidity — rather than complicated tools (footprint, volume profile, Elliott, etc.). Record your screen/price action, study live candles, and annotate levels.
– Practice & mindset: Recommend at least 6–8 weeks of disciplined practice/paper trading, journaling emotional triggers and KPIs, and focusing on a minimal set of reliable rules. Guard capital, avoid overtrading or social-media noise, and cultivate emotional balance (stay humble, avoid arrogance). Slow, repeatable practice beats shortcuts.
– Final point: Keep setups simple, know where price is likely to draw to, protect capital, and commit to consistent, patient skill development.
Quiz
1. What did ICT say was the most important thing for a developing student to learn first? A. Using footprint charts and order flow tools B. Finding the likely directional draw C. Trading every candlestick reversal D. Predicting FOMC reaction with news
2. What did ICT recommend doing before attempting live trading? A. Paper trade for a minimum of 6 to 8 weeks after consistent study B. Trade live immediately to build confidence C. Use market replay only and skip screen recording D. Focus on social media performance reports
Answer Key:
1. B Evidence: “the primary function for you as a developing student is simply getting accustomed to determining the draw. That’s the first rule of engagement” and “know where it’s likely to go to.” No timestamp available.
2. A Evidence: “when that happens, and you have a a 2-month… 6 to 8 weeks… then… you can start paper trading. And spend a minimum 6 to 8 weeks doing that.” No timestamp available.
– ICT is live-streaming a morning Nasdaq (NQ) tape‑reading session and will ignore the FOMC minutes as likely uneventful. – Key technical focus: a large opening‑range premium gap, a daily “suspension block” with a consequent encroachment, and the low of a shaded box (daily suspension block lower quadrant) as the primary target for the morning. – Market context: price action has been influenced by noisy geopolitical headlines (Strait of Hormuz/ceasefire) and likely algorithmic/manipulative behavior; bodies avoiding a key line is read as bearish. – Intraday plan: watch for fills into sell‑side liquidity pools, prefer small position size (micro contracts), take partial profits, protect stops above the wick/encroachment, and only re‑enter cautiously if conditions remain clear. – Trading method: simple tape‑reading—focus on open/high/low/close, liquidity and price behavior on 1‑minute candles rather than complex indicators, footprint, or replay gimmicks. – Practice advice: record live sessions (e.g., OBS), study individual candles, journal expectations and emotional triggers, paper‑trade for a minimum 6–8 weeks to build consistent directional read skill. – Mindset emphasis: protect capital, be disciplined, avoid social‑media noise and overtrading, control fear and arrogance, and adopt slow, repeatable processes rather than seeking shortcuts.
Quiz
1. What did ICT say was the best way to learn tape reading? A. Use market replay only B. Trade multiple contracts immediately C. Watch live price action and record each candle D. Focus on footprint and level 2 data
2. What did ICT say about when a trader should start paper trading? A. Immediately after watching one live session B. After becoming consistently accurate for 6 to 8 weeks C. Only after using market replay for a month D. Only after trading a live account successfully for a year
Answer Key with Evidence
1. C Evidence: “The fastest way you can do it. There is no faster shortcut than simply placing yourself in front in front of price action without any monetary concern” “You need to be able to watch the open, high, low, and close form real time.” “record your screen”
2. B Evidence: “Any retracement needs to be kept at a a maximum of just the lower quadrant.” “If it trades down below it here intraday, I would not want to see it trade back to that halfway point.” “Anything climbing back above after we leave this sets the stage for a run for intraday high.”
– The speaker links recent extreme market moves to geopolitical developments (Trump’s threats to Iran, Pakistan reportedly advising a different course, Iran’s defiance and public positioning around targets). He suggests a possible tactical delay (a two‑week window contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz) may have been used to disperse civilians, buying time for a later strike — but he stresses this is his speculation.
– Crude oil was highly volatile (big gap and a sharp drop from ~$109+ toward the low $90s), but he remains fundamentally bullish on oil — the recent decline may have washed out longs, not ended the uptrend. Oil remains event-driven and can spike quickly if attacks occur.
– Markets are being driven and amplified by headlines and off‑hours moves (stock index futures jumped, crude plunged). Single‑minute candlesticks have moved by hundreds of handles, demonstrating extreme intraday volatility.
– Trading advice and risk warning: stay out of these markets if inexperienced or thinly funded; use stop losses; treat this year as an education year rather than taking big risks. Manipulation/insider positioning can create quick, damaging moves.
– Technical/read‑on‑the‑tape notes: dollar index slipped, euro/pound are mixed (pound showing relative strength), stock futures (MES/MNQ) show bullish structure if they hold above recent upper halves of ranges and inefficiencies; gold/silver also touched inefficiencies but are risky to trade now.
– Because of the volatile, event‑driven environment and his responsibility as an educator, he will scale back live trading/tape‑reading streams and focus on educational content for a while to avoid influencing followers into risky trades.
– He emphasizes the human cost of the conflict, the emotional difficulty of trading such markets, and urges prudence and humility given the high uncertainty.
Quiz
1. According to ICT, what was one reason he believed the announced attack on Iran may not happen immediately?
A. The markets had already closed for the week
B. Pakistan advised a different avenue and people were standing around the targets
C. Crude oil had already reached its final target
D. The Strait of Hormuz had already been opened
2. What did ICT say the market reaction after hours suggested about crude oil and stock index futures?
A. Crude oil rose sharply while stock indices collapsed
B. Both markets stayed unchanged
C. Crude oil dropped hard while stock index futures rallied sharply
D. Gold and silver were the only markets affected
3. What did ICT repeatedly advise inexperienced traders to do in this environment?
A. Trade only with higher leverage
B. Ignore stop losses and hold through volatility
C. Stay away from the market and use the time to study
D. Focus only on shorting crude oil
4. What did ICT say he expected would happen if crude oil moved higher again after the drop?
A. Crude oil would probably stay flat for months
B. Oil prices could rise parabolically if attacks resumed
C. The dollar would instantly collapse to zero
D. Gold would become the only tradable market
5. What was ICT’s view on the possibility of a ceasefire?
A. He believed a ceasefire was fully confirmed and permanent
B. He thought the ceasefire would definitely open the Strait of Hormuz immediately
C. He viewed it as temporary theater and doubted it would last
D. He said the ceasefire would eliminate all market volatility
Answer Key:
1. B
Evidence: “a course of action has been suggested to the Trump administration by Pakistan and a uh They counseled him to consider a different avenue” and “they gave an a reason to to let the people go home and get away from those targets.”
2. C
Evidence: “we’re up 600 plus handles on stock index futures, and crude oil’s down you know, tens of thousands of dollars per contract” and “crude oil opened up on that news. Sold off.”
3. C
Evidence: “If you’re not experienced… this is not your year. I promise you you’re you’re you’re going to regret probably doing anything with it” and “Take this year as an education year. Spend it studying. Learn some concepts. Study. And remove yourself from the risk.”
4. B
Evidence: “if they come back later on and do all the attacks they said and Iran said they were going to respond by hitting everything in the area oil-related and other… that’s going to obviously cause, you know, parabolic rise in oil prices.”
5. C
Evidence: “I don’t foresee the Strait of Hormuz becoming open immediately” and “I just I can’t see 2 weeks… This might be just a temporary little speed bump in what may continue going on” and “It’s all theater. It’s all It’s nonsense. There’s no easy answer to this. It’s a mess.”
ICT gives a ~15-minute live review of the Micro Nasdaq (MNQ) price action, noting they may not stream tomorrow. He says viewers should also watch his earlier live stream because it explained the moves in real time.
Key technical points: a large regular-trading-hours opening-range gap formed after geopolitical headlines, price rallied into the midpoint of a daily “suspension block,” then fell to the block’s low (his target) and spent time trading in the lower half of that block.
He highlights a “fair value gap” (a buy-side inefficiency) and a recurring signature he uses: whether candlestick bodies — not just wicks — can touch key levels. Because the bodies failed to trade into the upper half of the suspension block (and could not touch certain levels), he interprets the structure as bearish and expects further downside unless price clears those levels at the next open.
He warns that off-hours geopolitical developments could change the picture at the 6:00 open, so be prepared. Practical advice: use less leverage, avoid overtrading, require stronger confluence before committing, be nimble and satisfied with partial runs. He closes noting family commitments and that he’ll post if he streams later.
Quiz
1. According to ICT, what is the key sign of bearishness when price retraces into a premium level? A. The wicks must touch the level B. The bodies cannot touch the level C. Price must close above the level D. Volume must increase
2. What did ICT say happens after price fails to get back up into the upper part of the daily suspension block? A. It becomes bullish B. It usually trades to consequent encroachment C. It immediately reverses to all-time highs D. It stops trading for the day
Answer Key:
1. B Evidence:“…if the bodies of the candlesticks can’t touch them… if the bodies can’t touch this key level while potentially being bearish… that’s bearish.” 2. B Evidence: “When it fails to get there, is that bullish or bearish? It’s bearish… I would look for that to eventually still try to work its way down to consequent encroachment right here
– ICT is focused on the micro NASDAQ this morning (despite FOMC minutes later) and watches one primary level: the low of a daily “suspension block” (shaded gray box) formed by a very large opening-range gap. – Key technical idea: price should draw to that low; if it breaks below, intraday retracements must stay in the lower quadrant (not reclaim the midpoint) for bearish continuation. Several downside targets were hit already. – Trading posture: be cautious — ICT would protect stops, take partial profits, and avoid overtrading. This commentary is observational, not trade advice. – Market context: volatility is amplified by geopolitical headlines and possible misinformation; that increases range and manipulation, so expect larger moves and be conservative. – Methodology emphasized: simple tape-reading (open/high/low/close, liquidity and inefficiencies) is sufficient — no complex indicators, footprint, or social-media hype needed. – Practice advice: watch live price action or record your screen, study individual one-minute candles, keep a study journal of expectations and emotions, and paper-trade consistently for 6–8 weeks before scaling up. – Psychological guidance: manage ego, fear, and overconfidence; learn to stop when you’re disciplined and “be content with enough.” Avoid chasing vanity metrics on social media. – Bottom line: focus on a few clear levels, practice disciplined tape-reading, protect capital, and develop emotional control — simplicity and repetition are the fastest path to consistent progress.
Quiz:
1. What did ICT say about using market replay instead of live recorded price action? A. It is better than live recording because it shows every tick B. It is the best method for learning order flow C. It is less useful because it only gives two updates per candle D. It should be used exclusively instead of tape reading
2. What did ICT recommend as a starting exercise for developing traders? A. Trade multiple contracts in a live account immediately B. Watch live price action and learn where the market is likely to draw to C. Use Elliott Wave and footprint charts first D. Focus on social media trade calls and copy them
3. What did ICT say about having a plan B in trading? A. Plan B is necessary for every setup B. Plan B helps reduce emotional pressure C. There should be no plan B, because it creates a scheduled exit to quit D. Plan B is only for demo accounts
Answer Key:
1. C — “market replay… it only seeing how it opens with a little bit of a flurry price action and then in the last little bit of movement. So, it’s only two updates to every new candle” 2. B — “The first rule of engagement… is to know where it’s likely to go to… you have to submit yourself to watching these individual candlesticks” 3. C — “There cannot be plan B. Okay? There’s no plan B… You just scheduled the exact premise why you’re going to quit and then fail.”
– ICT opened a livestream before the market open warning of unusually high risk and volatility today due to an anticipated geopolitical event tonight (creates bearish sentiment), so he’s staying neutral and observing rather than trading. – He repeatedly cautioned viewers not to use his real-time comments as trade signals — any winning moves today are likely chance/lottery-like; inexperienced traders should stay on the sidelines. – Market action: overnight and opening-range price behavior was messy (wicks, gaps, fair-value inefficiencies). The market took buy-side liquidity first (stopping shorts), then some sell-side moves — overall unclear and hard to read. – Technical focus: regular trading hours opening-range gap levels, liquidity pools, and recent wicks are key; price has been trading inside yesterday’s opening-range structure and lacked conviction one way or the other. – Teaching points: the session was treated as tape-reading practice — build anticipatory skills, learn to read market narrative (how stops and traps are engineered), and accept uncertainty rather than forcing trades. – Emphasis on risk management and experience: protect capital, avoid trading from fear or FOMO, don’t expect guarantees from teachers, and develop skill through disciplined observation and practice rather than rushed trading.
ICT is hosting a live market-watch on a high-risk “D‑day/T‑day” with a major geopolitical event expected later. He issues a strong disclaimer: he’s neutral, likely to be wrong today, and anyone using his commentary as trade confirmation should avoid risking real money. Price action this morning is messy and dangerous — the market opened, ran buy‑side first (likely stopping out shorts and breakout buyers), then showed weak/uncertain selling, lots of wicks, gaps and inefficiencies around the regular‑trading‑hours opening‑range levels. That makes reads difficult and trading hazardous.
Key takeaways: – Today is high‑risk and not a day for confident trading; sideline if you’re uncertain. – The market appears engineered to create stops/traps (ran the buy side first despite bearish sentiment). – Focus on observing price, tape, and levels (opening range gap, wicks, inefficiencies) rather than forcing trades. – Developing anticipatory price‑action skills takes hands‑on experience and discipline; no teacher can guarantee profitability. – If you must trade, be very conservative with stops and acknowledge the elevated chance of randomness/“lottery” outcomes.
Quiz
1. What did ICT say about taking trades during this morning’s live stream? A. He encouraged viewers to trade aggressively B. He said it was a good day to scalp quickly C. He warned viewers not to use his commentary as confirmation to take a trade D. He said the market was too predictable to avoid trading
2. How did ICT describe the market conditions for the morning?
A. Clean and highly predictable
B. Dangerous and likely to be messy
C. Calm with low risk
D. Strongly bullish with clear conviction
3. What was ICT’s overall bias for the morning?
A. Strong bullish bias
B. Strong bearish bias
C. Neutral bias
D. No opinion because he was not watching the market
4. What did ICT say the market did first after the opening bell?
A. Took sell-side liquidity first
B. Took buy-side liquidity first
C. Broke down and stayed below the opening range gap
D. Consolidated without taking any liquidity
5. What did ICT say new traders should do in a difficult environment like this?
A. Trade every move to gain experience quickly
B. Wait for a better setup and protect themselves by observing
C. Use higher leverage to maximize returns
D. Focus only on news headlines
Answer Key: 1. C Evidence: “please don’t do that today. I’m probably going to be wrong today. I’m probably going to get all wrong today. So, just bear that in mind.” 2. B Evidence: “I just don’t expect it to be clean price action. It’s probably going to be dangerous.” 3. C Evidence: “So, I have no bias this morning.” 4. B Evidence: “So far, we have taken a buy side and a sell side. Buy side’s taken first.” 5. B Evidence: “you have to learn what it is that’s going to hurt you” and “just sit and watch. Take the information in. Read the price action. Read the tape.”
– ICT: giving market interpretation after a major geopolitical move (Trump/Pakistan/Iran) that jolted markets after U.S. hours. – Geopolitical thesis: Administration reportedly delayed strikes (two-week pause/ceasefire conditional on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz). ICT speculates this may be a deliberate tactic to let civilians leave announced targets, then strike later — a temporary lull, not a true de-escalation. – Market reaction: massive volatility overnight — crude plunged (quoted ~$109 to ~$91), stock index futures spiked, enormous single-minute price swings in futures (hundreds of handles). These moves occurred in off-hours and surprised many traders. – Primary warning: markets are now highly event-driven and manipulable. If you’re inexperienced, undercapitalized, over-leveraged, or trade without stop losses, you risk catastrophic losses. Treat this year as an education year if unsure. – Trading stance: speaker remains structurally bullish on crude long-term but expects continued violent, unpredictable swings. He is personally hands-off for now and plans to stop live tape-reading/streaming and shift to educational content to avoid influencing others into risky trades. – Technical notes (brief): many instruments show price inefficiencies/volume imbalances and potential reclaimed fair-value gaps; watch whether retracements respect the “upper half” of those ranges. Dollar, EUR, GBP, indices, gold, and silver are all disorganized and sensitive to events. – Practical advice: remove risk (demo/training), use stop losses, don’t chase highlight reels or social-media bragging. Expect more volatility tied to news cycles and overnight sessions; be cautious about trading around geopolitical headlines. – Personal/ethical note: market moves are tied to real human suffering; this makes trading emotionally difficult. The speaker urges prudence and empathy, and will return to live trading only when conditions make sense.
Summary: acute, event-driven volatility from geopolitical developments has created high-risk trading conditions. The speaker cautions inexperienced traders to stay out or study, uses technical observations to outline possible scenarios, and will step back from live trading to focus on education.
Quiz:
1) What did ICT believe was happening with the two-week ceasefire idea? A. It was guaranteed to end the conflict immediately B. It was mainly a way to buy time and let people move away from target areas C. It was meant to lower gold prices D. It was only about reopening stock exchanges
Answer Key:
1) B Evidence: “Think about what 2 weeks does. 2 weeks can lull someone into thinking that they got plenty of time.” and “they gave an a reason to to let the people go home and get away from those targets.”
– Logistics: Host apologized for oversleeping, noted YouTube translation delays, and joked about dogs distracting him during the stream.
– Trading approach and tools: He emphasizes trading visual order-flow concepts—inefficiencies, fair value gaps (FVGs), wicks, PD arrays, octants/quadrants—and prefers watching bodies vs. wicks, using higher timeframes (5-min vs 1-min) to clear “time distortion.” He criticizes black‑box indicators and level‑2/footprint reliance, urging traders to learn real price mechanics.
– Short-term trading stance: Current market conditions are volatile and manipulated; he recommends surgical, short-duration trades or sitting out. He won’t teach aggressive “one-shot, one-kill” approaches until conditions return to being more predictable.
– Macro calendar and risk: CPI/PPI and Fed minutes are imminent and likely market-moving. He warns these events produce quick, violent moves and advises strict risk management and low leverage.
– Market views (selected instruments):
– EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Trading within daily inefficiencies; bias to lower if price remains in the lower half of ranges, but chop could persist.
– NASDAQ / MNQ: Shows intra‑day manipulation signatures; opening‑range midpoint and FVGs are key reference levels.
– Crude oil: Bullish bias; expects event-driven volatility and possible stop‑cleaning moves before strong upward continuation.
– Gold/silver: Neutral-to-down until key PD arrays are taken out; would need clear breaks above specific levels to turn bullish.
– Grains/agricultural commodities: He expects these to be a major bullish theme later (months ahead) due to fertilizer/supply shocks—important to study as they affect real demand.
– Bitcoin/crypto: He is skeptical of crypto’s long-term value and states a personal bearish view (even extreme calls like “to zero”) and is not actively trading it.
– Broader themes & warnings: Expects 2026 to be a particularly difficult trading year with increased manipulation and severe drawdowns for ill-prepared traders. Recommends preparing households (supplies) as macro shocks could be severe. Cautions against hyped social-media traders and easy-money narratives.
– Tone and closing: Stern, precautionary advice—protect capital, be selective, study institutional order‑flow logic. He hopes to be wrong about the worst-case scenarios but insists traders must plan for them.
1) What did ICT say about trading around CPI and PPI news? A. He likes to predict the exact move before the reports B. He avoids being ahead of the marketplace on those reports and waits for the market to reveal its direction C. He ignores the reports completely and never trades afterward D. He says CPI and PPI are always bullish for all markets
2) What did ICT say about crude oil’s likely direction? A. He expected crude oil to go lower immediately B. He thought crude oil was likely to go higher C. He said crude oil had no clear technical setup D. He said crude oil would remain flat for months
Answer Key: 1) B Evidence: “I don’t care about the data. I don’t care where it’s going to go. I’m just thankful it’s going to go somewhere. And then after a few minutes, then I’ll go in and I’ll start looking for setups…”the market will continue moving lower.”
2) B Evidence: “So we have higher prices in order for crude oil. I think it’s it’s very tricky for like doing short-term trading… I’d be looking for a lot of shenanigans, a lot of manipulation… but I would like to see it… go higher.”
