Tag: ict

  • January 2023 CPI commentary | January 12, 2023

    Summary:

    – The speaker is live-tape reading the market around a CPI release and repeatedly emphasizes: do not trade ahead of major news (CPI, rate announcements, NFP). He waits to see price reaction for 30+ minutes and only considers engaging after the initial one- to two-minute, time-based price delivery is clear.

    – He walks through his real-time process for ES/US500: identifying key levels (order blocks, fair-value gaps, wick midpoints and past highs/lows), drawing time-based levels on 5‑ and 1‑minute charts, and watching how price approaches liquidity pools. He names example levels to monitor (e.g., ~4018 on ES, downside references near 3954/3934/3927 on ES and comparable US500 levels) as possible targets depending on direction.

    – The method is algorithmic/time-based price-reading rather than indicator-driven. He stress-tests market structure (three passes, imbalance vs. balanced range), measures velocity into targets, and drops to shorter timeframes to find institutional entry drills if a level breaks.

    – Risk management is central: use stops, take partials (e.g., bank ~75–90% at early targets), roll stops to mean thresholds, and accept being stopped out as part of the process. He warns about slippage/gapping on news and that stops don’t guarantee protection during extreme moves.

    – Pedagogy: he’s intentionally live-streaming real-time readings (not cherry-picked hindsight) to teach the narrative—what price will likely do and why. Students should journal, annotate charts, and record sessions to build pattern recognition and emotional discipline. He urges patience, practice, and focusing on small repeatable objectives (five-handle moves) as building blocks.

    – He strongly criticizes retail “gurus,” hindsight cherry-picking, and range/bar-based methods for algorithmic intraday work. Time-based charts are non-negotiable for his approach.

    – Broader comments: he frames trading as hard, requiring work and emotional control, and advises preparing financially because he anticipates tougher economic conditions ahead. He invites viewers to learn by observation and practice rather than seeking quick wins or shortcuts.

    Quiz (Answer Key Below)

    Recap and test your knowledge

    1) According to ICT, how does he approach trading before major CPI releases?
    A. He regularly trades aggressively ahead of CPI.
    B. He never trades ahead of CPI and teaches students not to.
    C. He sometimes trades ahead if the setup looks good.
    D. He only trades ahead in a demo account.

    2) What minimum “low-hanging” objective (in handles) does ICT recommend beginners aim for?
    A. 1 handle
    B. 3 handles
    C. 5 handles
    D. 10 handles

    3) Which type of chart does ICT insist is required to read algorithmic/time-based price action properly?
    A. Range bars or tick charts
    B. Time-based charts (e.g., 1‑min, 5‑min)
    C. Renko or point-and-figure charts
    D. Only higher timeframe daily/weekly charts

    4) When ICT describes taking partials and protecting profits, where does he say he would roll his stop?
    A. To the original full-risk entry price only
    B. To an arbitrary round-number level
    C. To the mean threshold (midpoint) of the referenced candle / break-even area
    D. Never roll stops — leave them unchanged

    5) ICT says if the market is going down it will most likely:
    A. Go to take out an old high
    B. Go down to an old low or down into a fair value gap (an inefficiency)
    C. Immediately reverse to the upside without touching prior structure
    D. Remain rangebound forever

    Answer Key:
    1) B — Evidence: “this is a market driver that I do not trade ahead of” (0:00:33.420–0:00:45.980) and “that’s why I teach my students not to do it either” (0:01:15.659–0:01:24.420). Also: “we do not stand in front of… CPI and non‑farm payrolls” (0:05:24.000–0:05:33.780).

    2) C — Evidence: “you can easily get five handles with that easily” (0:36:51.300–0:37:04.140) and “that small little box that’s what your eye’s looking for… five handles” (0:59:02.760–0:59:35.280).

    3) B — Evidence: “time is the first element and price delivery… if you’re using range bars… you’re not trading algorithmically” (0:31:31.080–0:32:05.279). Also: “not a range chart… only a Time based chart” (1:55:29.460–1:55:32.520 and 1:55:52.320–1:55:58.500).

    4) C — Evidence: “then I would roll my stop… the mean threshold of that candle which would be approximately… 39.83 and 0.75 that’s where my stop would roll from” (0:37:52.079–0:38:11.700). Also: “I would hypothetically have my stop at 39.72 and a half” (1:33:24.480–1:33:32.880).

    5) B — Evidence: “are we going up or down… if it’s going down it’s going to go below an old low or it’s going to go down below market price to a fair value Gap where there’s an inefficiency” (1:43:39.480–1:44:06.119).

  • Monthly Goals & The Secret To Reaching Them | January 10, 2023

    Summary:

    – Main claim: You must set realistic monthly percentage goals. Without a target you’ll achieve nothing; critics who say “don’t have goals” are usually inconsistent traders.

    – Recommended progression: Year 1 target ~6%/month; move to ~8% after a few months into Year 2; aim for ~10%/month only after ~2.5–3 years of consistent experience. More conservative targets (e.g., 3%/month on a $250k funded account → $7,500/mo) are perfectly valid and compound well.

    – The multiplier/model: Choose one market and one repeatable setup (your “multiplier”) and trade it consistently. Your model — not flashy indicators or daily switching — creates reproducible results. Money management (small % risk per trade) does the heavy lifting.

    – Risk & position sizing: Use small risk per trade (suggested ~0.75–1% or less), limit leverage, cut size in drawdowns, use partials and sensible pyramiding. Never move stops to “rescue” trades.

    – Edge & method: Focus on price action and tape-reading (order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity pools, time/price structure). Indicators, harmonic patterns and similar retail “gimmicks” distract from what actually moves markets.

    – Discipline & rules: Write clear rules (when to trade, daily/session stop-losses, max losses per session/day). Know when NOT to trade (e.g., noisy/stagnant conditions or ahead of major data). Accept losses as normal; don’t chase to “fix” them.

    – Practical exercise: For beginners, a daily practice is recommended — don’t open charts until 10:00 ET, observe until ~10:45 on 1–5-minute charts for stop-hunts/liquidity runs and look for ~5-handle opportunities. Tape-read and journal; no live/demo trading until you’ve learned to observe.

    – Teaching format & proof: The speaker will demonstrate real-time price calls and executions (often on Twitter/YouTube). He emphasizes that demos can teach the logic; students who apply it have made real money. He invites students to backtest, journal, and verify.

    – Warnings & psychology: Avoid social-media FOMO, influencer hype, system-hopping, and the temptation to chase large monthly flips. Trading is emotionally demanding; most early years are unprofitable. Success requires consistency, patience, and hard study.

    – Closing message: With disciplined practice, a simple repeatable model, and proper money management, realistic monthly returns are attainable and scalable. Show up, study price action/tape, journal progress, and ignore distraction.

    Quiz (Answer Key Below)

    Recap and test your knowledge

    1) According to ICT, what monthly percentage return should a new trader realistically target by the end of Year One?
    A. 3% per month
    B. 6% per month
    C. 10% per month
    D. 25% per month

    2) ICT states which one of the following is the least important factor in consistently profitable trading?
    A. Entry technique
    B. Money management
    C. Identifying liquidity (fair value gaps, order blocks)
    D. Time-of-day selection

    3) For the exercise ICT assigns next week, at what time does he tell students to turn their charts on and begin observing?
    A. 8:30 AM New York time
    B. 9:30 AM New York time
    C. 10:00 AM New York time
    D. 11:00 AM New York time

    4) By Year Three (after following his program), which monthly return does ICT say is absolutely doable and sustainable?
    A. 3% per month
    B. 6% per month
    C. 8% per month
    D. 10% per month

    5) What does ICT mean by the term “multiplier” (what should your multiplier be)?
    A. The leverage ratio you always use
    B. The number of contracts you trade per entry
    C. Your repeatable setup/model — the pattern you trade over and over
    D. The weekly pip target you set

    Answer Key with evidence (timestamped transcript excerpts)

    1) Correct: B — 6% per month
    Evidence: “your goal should be able to Target six percent per month” (01:01:34–01:01:40). Also reinforced later: “six percent per month doubles your account size… if you compound six percent every single month it’s a hundred percent return” (01:19:21–01:19:37).

    2) Correct: A — Entry technique
    Evidence: “the entry technique is the least important factor in consistently profitable Trading” (02:14:27–02:14:38). He repeats: “the entry is the least important thing” (00:58:47–00:58:56 and 02:14:40–02:15:05).

    3) Correct: C — 10:00 AM New York time
    Evidence: “turn your charts on at 10 o’clock… only look at the market rate at 10 o’clock and only look to 10:45… look for five handles” (03:54:04–03:54:19 and 03:54:50–03:55:05). Also: “don’t start your charts or open them up before 10 o’clock… this exercise Monday through Friday of next week” (03:54:23–03:54:37 and 03:54:27–03:54:31).

    4) Correct: D — 10% per month
    Evidence: “year three… 10 per month is absolutely doable… I don’t give a [__] I’ll stand in front of the cftc and say yep you can do that too” (01:03:00–01:03:11 and 01:03:05–01:03:14). He frames 10% as an “upper echelon” target after sufficient experience (02:01:02–02:01:11; 03:23:01–03:23:06).

    5) Correct: C — Your repeatable setup/model
    Evidence: “the multiplier is your setup your model the thing that you trade over and over again” (01:26:59–01:27:06). He reiterates: “that’s your multiplier that’s your pattern that’s the thing that you’re going to do every single time” (01:33:32–01:33:38 and 01:33:34–01:33:42).

  • Why I do not trade NonFarm Payroll | January 6, 2023

    Summary — key points and takeaways

    – Main message: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) (and other high‑impact releases like CPI or FOMC rate announcements) is not a reliably tradable event for most traders — it’s highly unpredictable, volatile, and often manipulated, so it’s essentially a gamble for retail traders.
    – Personal stance: The speaker (ICT) admits he cannot predict NFP with repeatable precision and therefore chooses not to trade it. He learned this the hard way by losing accounts early in his career.
    – Typical behavior of NFP: fast, whipsaw price moves, large slippage, stops getting run or gapped through; initial “fake” moves are common; short windows (about 8:30–9:00 ET) carry most of the risk.

    Practical rules advised:
    – Don’t trade into NFP/CPI/FOMC announcements; treat those days as “sit out / observe” days.
    – Avoid trading the afternoons of Wednesday and Thursday before NFP; stop trading after the morning session (around 10–11am) on Wednesday to be cautious.
    – If trading a news event at all, wait (e.g., ~30 minutes) after the initial reaction before considering trades.
    – Always check the economic calendar before trading.
    – Risk & money management: preserving capital is the top priority — know what your account can emotionally and financially tolerate, size positions accordingly, and test that tolerance in demo before risking real funds.
    – Funded-account warning: don’t assume large funded accounts remove psychological risk — big nominal risks can be emotionally unmanageable and lead to ruin.
    – Education and mindset: long‑term success comes from studying price behavior, recognizing when market conditions offer a measurable edge, and learning where you’re likely to fail; avoid chasing social‑media “clout” or one-off demo highlights.
    – Specific market notes: ICT mentioned short‑term ES levels he watched as likely liquidity draws near the session (3814 — Jan 3, 2023 daily low; and 3804.5 — Dec 28, 2022 daily low) as examples of how he frames expectations without trading the event.
    – Final thought: abstaining from these event days is a disciplined, protective strategy that keeps you in the game long term; there will be plenty of tradable opportunities in calmer, higher‑probability environments.

  • Final ICT Twitter Space 2022 | December 31, 2022

    Summary:

    – Shift to public teaching: ICT (Michael Huddleston) confirmed he stopped paid/private mentorships and moved all core content (lessons 1–12) to YouTube and Twitter so everyone can access it for free. He’ll continue teaching publicly rather than via paid groups.

    – 2023 intent: He calls 2023 his “victory lap” — the last year he’ll pour himself into mentoring at a high pace. He will slow down afterward for family and health reasons but will still make content and mentor publicly on YouTube/Twitter (live streams starting Feb 7).

    – What he’ll teach: Real-time, top-down market analysis focused on algorithmic smart‑money behavior: fair value gaps, liquidity pools, order-flow signatures, time-of-day macros, and how/when gaps stay open. He promises live, minute-by-minute walkthroughs and repeatable proof of concept.

    – Practical, disciplined model: He emphasizes a minimalist, repeatable approach (top-down: weekly → daily → 4H → 60m → 15m → 5m/1m). Aim for realistic targets (e.g., “five-handle” moves in ES) and strong risk management rather than chasing flashy indicators or extreme strike rates.

    – Trading routine and timing: Key trading windows are the morning session (~08:30–10:30 ET) and the last hour (approx. 15:40–16:00 ET). If you don’t find a setup in the morning, don’t chase — wait for the afternoon. Extend levels through the day and trade internal-range liquidity on inside days.

    – Asset-class guidance: Futures (ES, NASDAQ / ES, bonds) are his preferred, most precise markets. Forex are less precise and prone to broker/server differences — one‑pip/one‑tick stop models are unrealistic in FX with real size.

    – Student responsibilities: Success requires chart time, journaling, backtesting, patience, and owning personal weaknesses. He will not hold hands or sell ongoing subscriptions; students must do the work to become independent traders.

    – Warnings: Beware of gurus, cherry-picked screenshots, fake backtests and MT4/MT5 manipulation, signal-sellers, and social-media hype. Avoid trading ahead of CPI/FOMC and other violent manual interventions. Don’t trade impulsively from live streams.

    – Psychology & character: Mastering yourself is central — trading amplifies existing personal flaws. Keep journal entries constructive, avoid public venting that anchors negative emotion, and build discipline to stop trading when your plan is met.

    – Proof & challenge: He insists his public analyses (tweets/videos) are verifiable in real time (cites a recent example calling 3864) and invites skeptics to reproduce similar public, timestamped analysis. He says the method is teachable and transferable.

    – Personal notes: He shared personal stories (past mistakes, growth), family priorities, travel plans (RV/mobile command center), and a desire to help students succeed. He’s motivated by seeing students make money and wants people to use the skills to build multiple income streams, help others, and live purposefully.

    Bottom line: ICT will provide free, public, hands-on mentorship in 2023 focused on algorithmic price structure, disciplined execution, and real-time demonstrations — but students must do the hard work, show up, and become independently responsible traders.

  • Post Christmas 2023 Preview | December 28, 2022

    Summary:

    ICT outlines his teaching and content plan for 2023 and delivers strong guidance about how to learn to trade properly.

    Main plans and format
    – Daily short public market reviews on YouTube (Mon–Fri): concise pre/post-market notes explaining setups and next-day expectations.
    – Two planned live tape‑reading sessions per week (morning, ~90–120 minutes): real-time chart annotation, commentary, and prompts to take screenshots. These will be observational—he will not place trades live to avoid front-running accusations or encouraging viewers to trade impulsively. Pre‑market analysis will be shared the night before. Sessions resume Feb 7, 2023.
    – Focus markets: e‑mini S&P and e‑mini NASDAQ (he will comment on Forex but is no longer trading FX actively). Content is free; the “price” is the time and effort the student invests.

    Teaching philosophy and goals
    – Emphasis on mentorship, tape‑reading, and building experience. The objective is to make students independent: by the end of the year you should be able to read price, find the right market, and trade without relying on him.
    – Quality over quantity: look for one high‑probability setup per week rather than overtrading. Beginners should not pursue daily high‑frequency trading—expect 1.5–2 years of development before attempting that.
    – Use the economic calendar to frame opportunities; avoid trading ahead of major releases like CPI/FOMC (too one‑sided and dangerous).
    – Core concepts to focus on: liquidity runs, fair value gaps, order blocks/breakers, market structure shifts, and multi-factor confluence—trade only when there is statistical/probabilistic support.
    – Strong emphasis on risk management, discipline, and psychological control. Avoid impulsive “button‑pushing,” chasing funded‑account leaderboards, or copying social‑media hype. Small consistent gains (e.g., one contract, modest weekly handles) are preferable to risky overleveraging.

    Behavioral warnings and industry critique
    – He criticizes short‑cut courses, showmanship, and influencers who prioritize performance theater over transparency. He encourages recording full trade activity, honest live streams, and independent study rather than chasing fame.
    – Personal anecdotes underline the cost of impatience, social‑media influence, and past mistakes; he urges humility, persistence, and realistic expectations.

    Longer‑term plan
    – 2023 will be his last major instructional year before scaling back in 2024. He plans to publish four books (three instructional, one fiction) and then reduce public content to focus on family and personal life.

    Bottom line: commit time to tape‑reading, prioritize one strong setup per week, master risk and discipline, and use his live sessions to learn—not to copy trades.

  • How To Win Trades: An Interactive Love Story | December 3, 2022

    Summary — key points and actionable takeaways from ICT’s talk

    Big picture
    – Winning in trading is a long, personal process. There are no shortcuts: know yourself, identify your weaknesses, and remove or manage them so they don’t wreck your decisions.
    – Consistency beats flashy one-off wins. The mentor’s objective is to teach you a repeatable process so you become independent, not dependent on someone else’s calls.

    Self-knowledge & psychology
    – Traders must honestly assess personal frailties (impulsiveness, substance use, codependency, anxiety). These show up in trading (bailing early, re‑entering impulsively, overleveraging).
    – Don’t broadcast failures on social media. Keep a private, positive trading journal—your best learning resource and encouragement.
    – Treat losses as “taxes” of the business; don’t let them create emotional spiral or impulsive “fix-it” trades.

    Process & skill development
    – The path: backtest (min. 3 months, ideally 6) → tape‑reading (watch live price without trading) → demo trading (min. 3 months; 6 months preferred) → consider live. Rushing to live trading causes failure.
    – Tape‑reading and logging screenshots/annotations of what you think is happening trains your narrative and improves pattern recognition.
    – Journal entries should be constructive: document what you saw, why you traded (or didn’t), and what happened.

    Market structure, narrative and bias
    – Market structure + seasonality + narrative determine high‑probability bias.
    – Seasonality: spring tends to form a high and bias lower into summer; fall tends to form lows and bias higher into year‑end (Santa Claus rally window ~ mid‑Sept to mid‑Nov).
    – Detect quarterly shifts by divergence between the big averages (SPX, NASDAQ, Dow). Once one average fails to make a high/low, look for structure shifts on H4/1H and trade with that bias.
    – Narrative = how liquidity/order flow will be delivered (algorithms, manual interventions). Bias = directional expectation. Know both before taking entries.
    – After big news (NFP, CPI, FOMC) expect one‑sided, whip‑saw moves that sweep liquidity both sides. Wait for the volatility to settle, then trade inefficiencies (imbalances, fair value gaps, order blocks).

    Tactics & entries
    – Use smart‑money concepts: fair value gaps, order blocks, liquidity draws, stop runs—identify where algorithmic repricing will invite retail participation.
    – Pyramid entries are individual, repeatable entries; manage stops to reduce risk as price moves in your favor (not increasing risk). Partials are practical: take money off the table.
    – Low‑hanging fruit approach: target small objective per trade/session (examples: 3–6 handles per session in E‑mini S&P; 10 handles as a simple target is a reliable “enough”). For FX, think in pips (e.g., ~20–30 pip intraday thresholds).

    Risk & money management
    – Stop losses are mandatory. Trading without stops is a path to ruin.
    – Personalize risk per trade; industry “two percent” rules aren’t one‑size fits all. Many traders do better with far smaller per‑trade risks (e.g., 0.5%).
    – When using funded accounts or large implied buying power, only use ~30% of that equity as your working capital (so you don’t overleverage the platform’s nominal balance).
    – Money management and compounding beat reckless leverage. Small consistent gains compound into large returns; preserving capital is the top rule.

    Competition (Robins/FTMO) advice
    – Competitions reward discipline, not YOLO leverage. Use industry margins and stop losses—don’t rely on inflated offshore margins.
    – Strategy: pick a simple, repeatable daily/sessional target (e.g., small fixed handles/pips), hit it, stop for the day. Let money management compound results.
    – Example math: aiming for ~11–12.5% per week via steady, repeatable small gains is far more achievable and sustainable than chasing massive one‑offs.

    Practical reminders & warnings
    – Prefer index futures for cleaner, more predictable action (ES/NQ). Be careful with FX and crypto—structural risks (CBDC, pegging) and extreme, sudden volatility make them riskier.
    – Avoid system‑hopping and trying to mix every teacher’s ideas; pick a model/cookie‑cutter and apply it consistently until proven in your journal/demo.
    – Trading can have severe personal consequences. If you have debilitating emotional responses to money lost or gained, address that before trading live.

    Concrete action checklist
    1. Do 3–6 months of backtesting; then 3–6 months tape‑reading/demo trading.
    2. Keep a private, positive, detailed trading journal (screenshots + quick narrative).
    3. Identify personal weaknesses (impulsivity, substances, emotional triggers) and mitigate them.
    4. Learn market‑structure + seasonality (watch SPX/NQ/DOW divergences) to form bias.
    5. Use fair value gaps/order blocks/imbalances for entries; always use stop losses.
    6. Personalize risk; consider trading against only 30% of funded buying power.
    7. Target small, repeatable objectives (low‑hanging fruit) and let compounding/money management do the rest.

    End note
    – The speaker emphasizes discipline, humility, and sustained effort. If you commit to the process—backtesting, journaling, tape‑reading and conservative risk management—you can achieve consistent results.

  • Morning Routine Before Trading | November 27, 2022

    Summary — key points from the ICT

    – Morning routine (practical): hydrate (20 oz water), eat a half banana for potassium, stretch. Then review your market prep (economic calendar, weekly analysis) and have a pen/pad for notes.

    – Pre-session checklist: always consult an economic calendar (filter medium/high-impact events and relevant pairs/instruments). Revisit your prior (weekend) weekly analysis to see if anything changed while you were away.

    – Weekly-bias framework: pick a weekly bias on the weekend by asking whether the coming weekly candle’s largest expansion is likely up or down (not predicting the weekly close). That bias becomes your primary “buy model” or “sell model” for intraday sizing and trade selection.

    – Institutional flow and liquidity: markets are driven by large, slow institutional flows. Trade setups are often the result of engineered moves (opposite, short-term drops or spikes during news) that draw retail liquidity — these are the opportunities to trade into (e.g., runs for sell-side liquidity when you want to go long).

    – Entry concepts: look for runs into: (a) lows that draw liquidity, or (b) fair value gaps / imbalances (SIBI/CBI concepts). Use intraday timeframes (15m as a bellwether, down to 1m for execution examples) but always frame trades within the weekly/daily context.

    – Position sizing & leverage rules: use maximum leverage for trades that align with your weekly bias. If you trade against the weekly bias, reduce size to ~50% (or less). Build positions in the direction of institutional flow; avoid large leverage on counter-bias trades.

    Trade-management rules (practical discipline):
    – Use stop losses (you can’t know outcomes).
    – Two-trade morning rule: if you lose two specified trades (first larger, second ≤50% size), stop trading for the day (or PM session). After a losing day, reduce risk on next trading day (e.g., trade 2 contracts if prior losses were 10 & 5 until you recover a set percentage).
    – Take partials, leave a small runner to target liquidity; don’t overstay positions or turn intraday guesses into long swing exposures.

    – Loss & drawdown mindset: losing trades are inevitable; manage how you lose, log every trade, and rebuild systematically. Backtesting, journaling and repetitive practice create “pseudo-experience” and pattern recognition.

    – Market choice & study advice: concepts transfer across asset classes (Forex, indices, commodities), but for real-time examples study US index futures (ES/NQ) since data and examples are easy to observe. Forex can be highly manipulated and less consistent; trade what fits your location, regulation and comfort.

    – Career / lifestyle advice: don’t quit your job until you have consistent profitability for ~2 years, two years of living expenses saved, and recommended minimum trading equity (~$100k). Avoid trying to hurry success for social media or funded-account fame.

    – Teaching philosophy: develop your own adapted model — don’t blindly copy. Specialize in one (or two) markets and timeframes that suit your personality. Embrace the discipline of backtesting and journaling; patience and repetition are required.

    – Current environment & final cautions: markets have become tougher and more event-driven recently; expect choppiness and false moves. Be conservative, stick to rules, and avoid chasing hype or “get-rich-quick” bootcamp promises.

  • How To Study ICT Properly | November 26, 2022

    Summary — How to study ICT (Michael J. Huddleston)

    – Start with a clear mission statement and a study journal. Write why you’re studying, which market/instrument and time frame you’ll specialize in, and record questions, trades, wins and losses.

    – Follow a defined study order — begin with the 2022 mentorship (one video per day), then the core content, then the Market Maker Primer. Don’t cherry‑pick videos from algorithms or social media.

    – Build a single, simple trading model (the 2022 model is the recommended baseline). Apply a limited set of tools (fair value gaps, breakers, order‑flow entry drills, turtle‑style ideas) rather than forcing every tool on every trade.

    – Practice in demo/paper first. Only you decide when to go live — start tiny, low leverage, and expect psychological changes when real money is involved (flip a coin for your first tiny live trade if needed to get past fear).

    – Accept that losses happen. Log mistakes honestly, learn from them, and avoid selective sharing of wins on social media. Consistency and boring discipline beat flashy, risky behavior.

    – Manage risk and position sizing carefully: excellent charting without risk control can still blow your account.

    – Mindset and personal life matter. Resolve personal issues, control impatience and emotional motivations (wanting to prove people wrong, escape pain, or chase instant results) — these commonly sabotage traders.

    – Be patient and diligent: disciplined daily chart study (review ranges, weekly/daily context) and sustained practice — often months to a year — are required to become consistently profitable.

    – Final note: ICT emphasizes practical, no‑nonsense teaching, wants students to succeed, and will be offline until February 7, 2023.

  • Final ICT Shotgun Saturday 2022 | November 19, 2022

    Summary — ICT closing thoughts (end of 2022) and outlook for 2023

    – Purpose & tone: A final, blunt “closing thoughts” talk to the community — grateful for growth, proud of students, sharing lessons learned and plans for 2023.

    – Family & community notes: Personal anecdotes about his children (pride in his son Caleb, concern about his daughter’s choices). Praises community camaraderie but warns against negativity and gatekeeping.

    – Teaching model & access: Announces private mentorship/community will be shut down and content made 100% public in 2023 — no more exclusive paid mentorships. He regrets past content being copied/monetized, but stands by freely sharing his methods.

    – Trading philosophy & practical rules:
    – Go slow: don’t chase fast big returns or try to impress; steady, modest monthly returns and consistent risk control beat flash run-ups.
    – Risk & position management: use minimal leverage, control trading frequency, don’t pyramid into losing directions, favor trades that align with daily/weekly range expansion.
    – Focus on process: study market structure, backtest, journal emotional responses (fear/greed), and spend substantial time (recommend ~1–2 years) learning before expecting consistent profits.
    – Competitions cautioned: leaderboard success is often short-lived; avoid getting “drunk” on beating others.

    – Behavior & mindset: Overcome impatience, accept responsibility for mistakes, stop being a perpetual student, and be realistic about expectations.

    – 2023 plans: Live YouTube sessions (brief, event-driven, twice weekly at most), market-over-the-shoulder quizzes, demonstrations of market-maker behavior, and some new tools/demos he’ll reveal (not all will be taught in full detail). Encourages rest over the holidays and returning ready to work in February.

  • Shotgun Saturday With ICT | November 13, 2022

    Summary — ICT Saturday Shotgun

    – Big-picture warning: geopolitical shifts (Saudi alignment with BRICS) threaten the petrodollar’s dominance. That could weaken the U.S. dollar and accelerate a global monetary transition (CBDCs, a potential single reserve currency backed by gold among some nations).

    – Food & water risk: the speaker argues food and water are being “weaponized” (lower crop yields, fertilizer/water restrictions, rising costs). He expects engineered shortages and severe grain rallies in 2023 (corn, soy, wheat, rice) — potentially parabolic moves far exceeding recent commodity rallies.

    – Market implications and strategy shift: because of the above, he’s shifting focus from FX to futures and commodity markets. He believes retail Forex and many crypto plays will be marginalized or banned; by contrast, physical commodities and futures will present the biggest trading opportunities.

    – Practical preparedness advice: stock at least 6 months (ideally longer) of non‑perishable food, water, filters, basic medicines, and household readiness so personal needs won’t impair trading judgment if shortages or price shocks occur.

    – Crypto & social media skepticism: he criticizes crypto as fraught with fraud, exchange failures and hype (cites his son’s losses). Social platforms and payment services are vulnerable to collapse or control; this will accelerate moves toward CBDCs and reduced freedom of information/payment options.

    – Moral perspective: profiting from disasters is uncomfortable but common in speculation; he argues one can ethically use gains to help others (parable of talents).

    – How to trade macro events: don’t trade directly into CPI or FOMC releases. CPI typically causes a straight, violent move; FOMC often shows a two‑stage pattern (initial fake move, then the real directional wave). Wait for post‑release price structure and volume balance to re-establish before trading.

    – Market mechanics emphasis: markets are heavily manipulated. Traders should study how manipulation works (liquidity pools, volume imbalances, fair value gaps). Use one market to specialize in, study correlated pairs for context, and choose strategies that match current market profile (trending, reversing, consolidating).

    – Education/offerings: he references his 2022 mentorship (41 videos) and methods (Enigma, market-maker concepts) as practical training that teaches these market mechanics.

    – Tone & closing: he wants listeners to prepare practically and mentally, hopes to be proven wrong but stresses urgency. He finishes with a short Q&A: pick one market to master; strategies themselves don’t change — market conditions do, so apply the right strategy to the right condition.

    That’s the core of the talk: prepare materially, refocus trading on commodities/futures, respect macro events and market structure, and beware crypto/FX/social platforms as unreliable.