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  • ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 25, 2026

    ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 25, 2026

    https://youtu.be/UQJW9obxt34

    Summary:

    – ICT will be away from X for about two weeks for Passion Week/Easter and to help friends. They’ll post a few short training videos but won’t be doing live analysis until they return in two Mondays.

    Market overview and guidance:
    – General stance: markets are messy and volatile with low volumes next week. Avoid live trading, focus on demo/practice and studying price action. Only take very high-conviction setups; preserve capital and manage risk.
    – Dollar Index: recently ran up near 100.54. There are daily volume imbalances and wicks suggesting possible retracement lower; if the dollar weakens further, EUR/USD and GBP/USD could rally.
    – EUR/USD: choppy, many wicks and conflicting signals. Current structure looks like an inversion fair value gap; bias is toward a move lower (targeting sell-side below ~1.13917) unless price reclaims the level above and becomes a bullish FVG.
    – GBP/USD: similar struggle—interpreted as an inversion fair value gap for now; could change on geopolitical news.
    – Gold & Silver: gold had an aggressive selloff and cleared key lows. Silver delivered a very large move driven by institutional positioning; both are event-driven and manipulable—recommend staying sidelined.
    – Crude oil: ran up but is risky to trade now because geopolitics can move it violently; the speaker thinks it could go much higher ($180–200/bbl) but warns against trading it recklessly.
    – Equities (E-mini S&P / Micro NASDAQ): trading in an ugly range. Watch specific volume/imbalance levels—only bullish if price trades and reclaims inversion fair value gaps. A potential new Fed chair could be a catalyst for a pronounced rally, but that’s speculative.

    Tone and recap:
    – Markets are unpredictable right now—many political/geopolitical influences. The speaker emphasizes caution, risk management, and learning rather than forced trading. They’ll be back with live commentary after their break.

    Quiz

    1) According to ICT, what should traders do during Passion Week / the upcoming week he referenced?
    A. Increase trading frequency to capture volatility
    B. Avoid trading with real money and use practice/demo instead
    C. Aggressively trade commodities only
    D. Move all positions to long-term holds

    2) How does ICT describe the gold and silver markets in the transcript?
    A. Fair and easy to trade for beginners
    B. Highly manipulated and risky, often driven by big institutional interests
    C. Always bullish and safe to hold long-term
    D. Unaffected by event-driven forces

    3) What did ICT say would likely happen if the dollar index “loses this imbalance and go lower”?
    A. Dollar strengthens and Euro/pound fall
    B. Dollar weakens and Euro/pound rise
    C. No significant change across FX pairs
    D. Immediate global market crash

    4) Which condition would cause ICT to change his current bearish stance on Euro dollar to a bullish one?
    A. If Euro dollar trades above and reclaims the inversion fair value gap he identified
    B. If gold and silver both spike simultaneously
    C. If crude oil drops below $50 per barrel
    D. If unemployment numbers are revised downward

    5) What did ICT recommend regarding contract size / leverage for index trading this year?
    A. Use full leverage and standard E-mini contracts for maximum gains
    B. Focus on micro contracts (e.g., MNQ) to avoid overleveraging and encourage smaller risk
    C. Only trade options, never futures
    D. Avoid all index trading completely

    Answer Key
    1: B
    2: B
    3: B
    4: A
    5: B

    Evidence from the transcript (timestamps not available):

    Q1 Evidence (supports answer B):
    – “because of uh or observance next week of the resurrection of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ… I’m not engaging price action. I’m not trading that. Usually not commenting at all.”
    – “don’t take any trades right now. Practice and demo. Just practice. Read price action…”

    Q2 Evidence (supports answer B):
    – “This market, just like gold, is extremely manipulated.”
    – “they suppress it. They’re paper markets… these markets will do it because it’s the good old boys behind it all.”

    Q3 Evidence (supports answer B):
    – “If we lose this imbalance and go lower, then we’re probably going to see some pressure on dollar index and the Euro dollar and pound dollar will be allowed to go higher.”

    Q4 Evidence (supports answer A):
    – “if it were to trade above that then I would expect this to become a reclaimed bullish fair value gap but right now the characteristic that it’s under … is that of inversion fair value gap”
    – “I’m looking for Euro dollar to give up the ghost and make a run below this low… But if this gets violated to the upside much like Euro dollar then I’m probably wrong.”

    Q5 Evidence (supports answer B):
    – “I told everybody I would be focusing on that market this year for the sake of encouraging you all not to be trying to overlever your accounts. So what do we have here? We have this wick… MNQ, this is the micro NASDAQ.”

  • ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 21, 2026

    ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 21, 2026

    https://youtu.be/YrBrgUON9fE

    Summary:

    – Opening: Live market commentary focusing on one teaching — “time distortion” — and chart-based analysis across the dollar index, FX (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), commodities (oil, gold, silver), Bitcoin, and US indices.

    – Time distortion (key lesson): When price sits in a prolonged range on a low timeframe, go to higher timeframes to see the true structure and the inefficiencies (fair-value gaps/volume imbalances) price is trying to resolve. Use the behavior of candlestick bodies relative to the midpoint of those inefficiencies to infer institutional order flow (bodies staying in the lower half = bearish; in the upper half = bullish).

    – Dollar index: Currently in large consolidation with structural shifts. ICT is biased to dollar staying firm or moving higher (flight-to-quality because of ongoing war), but names a clear “line in the sand” — loss of a specific suspension block/volume-bounce zone — that would flip the view bearish and favor higher EUR/GBP.

    – FX (EUR/USD, GBP/USD): Mixed/50–50 setups; direction depends on what the dollar does. Seasonal tendencies could push EUR/GBP higher later, but war and broader uncertainty are overriding factors.

    – Commodities & metals:
    – Crude/Brent: Expect significant upside (mentions targets into $150–$180+ for Brent).
    – Gold & silver: Recent sell-offs after failing key levels; watching for gaps/“consequent encroachment” and possible further downside. Silver is especially event-driven and volatile.

    – Bitcoin: In protracted consolidation with a bearish lean; has specific lower targets if it breaks key lows, though a break above recent highs would turn the bias bullish.

    – US indices: Bearish bias across Dow, S&P, NASDAQ supported by intermarket divergences (SMT) and distribution signals; specific downside targets given (e.g., NASDAQ ~22,779.75 continuous-contract target). Advises focusing on continuous contracts for structural analysis rather than individual delivery months.

    – Trading guidance / risk management:
    – In uncertain, event-driven markets (war, gaps), reduce trade frequency and leverage; be prepared to be wrong.
    – Use continuous futures contracts for top-down analysis.
    – Record timestamps of calls/levels for accountability.
    – If you can’t grasp these concepts within months, reassess your approach — the rules presented are simple and rule-based, not subjective.

    Overall: Market environment is conflicted and risky; use higher-timeframe context, fair-value gaps/volume imbalances, continuous-contract analysis, and conservative sizing to navigate time-distorted price action.

    Quiz – Recap and Test Your Memory

    1) According to ICT, what is the primary way to “fix” time distortion when price is stuck on a low timeframe?
    A. Lower your leverage and trade less frequently
    B. Go up to a higher timeframe to see the inefficiency it is trying to reach
    C. Use only one-minute charts and scalp more
    D. Switch to a different market entirely

    2) When doing top-down analysis of index futures, which contract type does ICT emphasize using for clearer, smoothed higher-timeframe information?
    A. Front-month delivery contract (e.g., June)
    B. Continuous contract (no month code)
    C. Spot cash index only
    D. Only monthly options expiries

    3) ICT identifies a specific “line in the sand” level for the dollar index. What defines that level?
    A. A simple round psychological price level
    B. A moving average crossover
    C. “This volume imbalance low, volume imbalance high” and a suspension block / inversion fair value gap
    D. Fibonacci retracement 61.8%

    4) What is ICT’s overall bias on the major equity indices as expressed in the livestream?
    A. Strongly bullish and expecting sustained new highs
    B. Neutral — no clear bias
    C. Bearish — expecting distribution and lower targets (e.g., Dow, ES, NQ draws)
    D. Only intraday scalping bias, no directional view

    5) What risk-management action does ICT recommend in the current uncertain (war-driven) market environment?
    A. Increase leverage to chase bigger moves
    B. Maintain usual trading frequency and risk
    C. Dial back trading frequency and lower leverage to smallest sizes
    D. Always hold positions overnight to capture weekend gaps

    Answer key:
    1: B
    Evidence: “What time distortion mean?… How do you fix it?… you go up to the higher time frames. … We’re in a one minute. We’re go up to a five minute. … Above 5 minute… 15-minute. It’s already jump off the chart at you.” (time-distortion section, near end)
    2: B
    Evidence: “When you’re looking at trading the indicy market, are you referring to the continuous contract at all?… you always see me go to the continuous contract. … If you look up here. If you see a month ever, that’s not continuous contract. … it’s continuous contract because there’s no month being mentioned here.” (continuous contract discussion)
    3: C
    Evidence: “you got this volume and bounce low, volume and bounce high. This is like the line in the sand for me. If we lose this, then I’m I’m not so optimistic for dollar.” (dollar index discussion)
    4: C
    Evidence: “I’ve been sticking to I’m bearish on all the indices, and I’m telling you where my targets are… We’re seeing heavy distribution here. … that’s why I’ve been sticking to I’m bearish.” (indices discussion)
    5: C
    Evidence: “Whenever I have been confronted with uncertainty, my experience has taught me to dial back frequency, dial back the desire to want to participate and then lower leverage. That means go down to the smallest leverage you can do.” (risk-management / war discussion)

  • ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 19, 2026

    ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 19, 2026

    https://youtu.be/w2zTfhjScDg

    Summary:

    Overview
    – Live market commentary and teaching on price action across multiple instruments; the speaker uses concepts like fair value gaps, consequent encroachment, volume imbalances, event-horizon midpoints, and buy/sell-side liquidity pools.
    – Repeated emphasis on risk management, selective trading, and that his commentary is not investment advice — do not trade solely on what he says.

    Market views (short form)
    – Micro E‑mini NASDAQ (NQ/MNQ): Watching for a drop to a specific sell‑side liquidity level (~24,485); if price closes below certain wicks/gaps, expect continued downside.
    – Dollar Index: Bias is firm-to-higher; sees prominent discount wick and volume/balance structure that supports further strength. If dollar is firm, expect EUR/GBP weakness.
    – EUR/USD: Bearish bias if bodies stay below a key wick/encroachment level; watching sell‑side liquidity pools and an unresolved fair gap.
    – GBP/USD (Cable): Expects a move lower toward a sell‑side liquidity pool if the pair confirms inversion/fair-value gap behavior; describes the market‑maker sell model and entry/validation rules.
    – Bitcoin/crypto: Speaker is skeptical and personally doesn’t trade crypto; expects lower prices long‑term, outlines how he would manage partial exits if short. Warns of mania and high risk.
    – Gold & Silver: Prefers caution—metals showing signs of a smart‑money exodus (especially silver, where he cites delivery shortages). Recommends taking profits rather than holding into potential deep retracements.
    – Crude Oil: High volatility and manipulation; he personally avoids trading it despite expecting higher prices longer term.
    – S&P (ES): Noted gaps, volume imbalances, and price actions that suggest potential continued downside; March 19, 2026 flagged as a defining day for direction.

    Trading methodology & rules highlighted
    – Primary tools: OHL(C) levels, fair value gaps, consequent encroachment (midpoints), volume imbalances, and liquidity pool mapping — rule‑based, visual order-flow reading rather than reliance on on‑tick internal footprint data.
    – Event horizon (midpoint between lows/highs) used as targeting/partial-exit technique.
    – Inversion fair‑value gap validation requires specific price behavior (closes, reclaims, midpoint tests) before treating zones as tradeable.
    – Position management: use partial exits at structurally meaningful midpoints; take profits and preserve capital; be selective — don’t overtrade.

    Warnings, commentary & community
    – Markets are unusually manipulated and volatile; avoid trading into major news (e.g., FOMC) and be wary of hype.
    – Strong criticism of paid gurus, rebranded/leaked mentorship content, and people who misinterpret his methods; he offers most teaching for free and stresses learning the rules before arguing.
    – Personal/philosophical remarks: he teaches to protect traders from self-inflicted losses, values humility and charity, and encourages using trading gains to bless others rather than chase status.

    Tone & intent
    – The presenter is candid, often colorful, and mixes technical teaching with personal anecdotes and strong opinions. Primary goals: educate on a rule‑based price‑action framework, prevent unnecessary losses, and build disciplined traders.

    Quiz – Recap

    1) According to ICT, what does he explicitly tell viewers regarding taking trades based on his live commentary?
    A. He encourages viewers to copy his trades exactly.
    B. He warns viewers not to take trades based solely on his commentary.
    C. He suggests viewers should always trade during his livestreams.
    D. He advises viewers to use maximum leverage when following his ideas.

    2) What is ICT’s short-to-intermediate bias for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in this session?
    A. Bearish — he expects the Dollar Index to fall significantly.
    B. Neutral — he has no view on the Dollar Index.
    C. Bullish/Firm — he is not bearish and expects it to stay firm or go higher.
    D. He recommends closing all Dollar positions immediately.

    3) Which statement best reflects ICT’s relationship with Bitcoin/crypto
    A. He is long large positions in Bitcoin and recommends others buy.
    B. He actively day-trades crypto and teaches intraday crypto strategies.
    C. He has never traded Bitcoin/crypto and personally would not touch it.
    D. He runs a paid crypto mentorship and solicits students for crypto trades.

    4) What guidance did ICT give regarding gold and silver in the livestream?
    A. He urged viewers to aggressively buy and hold both metals for massive gains.
    B. He warned that metals could retrace, advised taking profits, and noted delivery/supply issues in silver.
    C. He recommended ignoring risk management for precious metals.
    D. He said silver has abundant physical supply and no delivery risk.

    5) What is ICT’s stance on trading crude oil during the market environment he described?
    A. He recommends active trading in crude oil because it’s stable and predictable.
    B. He advises treating crude like a “rattlesnake” and not trading it due to extreme volatility and geopolitical risk.
    C. He suggests using high leverage in crude to maximize gains.
    D. He states crude oil prices are irrelevant and offers no opinion.

    Answer key (with evidence from transcript and approximate location in the recording):

    1) Correct answer: B
    Evidence: “guys are taking trades based on what I’m saying and I asked you not to do that. I know do not do that stuff.” (Opening portion of the transcript / early in the livestream)

    2) Correct answer: C
    Evidence: “I’m not bearish on dollar index. So that means I’m expecting lower prices on euro, lower prices on pound dollar… I personally don’t think that we’re done with the dollar index going up higher.” (Dollar Index section / early–middle)

    3) Correct answer: C
    Evidence: “I have never traded Bitcoin. I’ve never traded crypto… I wouldn’t touch it. I wouldn’t trade it. And that’s just my opinion.” (Bitcoin section / middle of the transcript)

    4) Correct answer: B
    Evidence: “When we were trading here, I said it would be univilized for you not to be taking profit in silver and gold… There is no silver to take delivery of… So the people that were holding it to take delivery, what’s their incentive to hold the contract? None.” (Gold & Silver sections / middle of the transcript)

    5) Correct answer: B
    Evidence: “don’t trade it. … Crude oil doesn’t make sense. It doesn’t make sense. There’s so much volatility now… Treat it like a rattlesnake. … I’ll admire you from a distance, but I’m not trying to touch you because it’s going to bite you.” (Crude oil section / middle of the transcript)

  • ICT 2026 EOD Market Review \ March 13, 2026

    ICT 2026 EOD Market Review \ March 13, 2026

    https://youtu.be/l7hRTBvK7to

    Summary:

    – ICT reviews end-of-week price action and emphasizes a trading concept he calls “immediate rebalance” — a price delivery behavior (PD Array) he codified — which recently hit his target precisely on the dollar index and signaled directional moves.
    – Dollar strength (immediate rebalance) translated into clear selling opportunities in dollar-quoted FX pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, etc.); EUR/USD and GBP/USD behaved largely as he expected.
    – Technical themes he repeatedly uses: fair value gaps, consequent encroachment (50% midpoint of wicks), rejection blocks, discount/ premium wicks, order blocks, volume imbalances, and gradient levels (quadrants/octants). These guide entries, targets and invalidation.
    – Commodities: crude needs a close above the wick midpoint to confirm a run higher; gold remains range-bound with possible lower pullback; silver he expects could be manipulated lower (cites historical precedent) and may fall quickly if key levels break.
    – Equity futures (micro E-Mini S&P and micro Nasdaq): he anticipates a weak Sunday open (gap down) and continuation lower toward prior lows; recommends using micro contracts and paper/demo trading given current volatility.
    – Trade example: he discussed a micro trade where market structure, fair value gaps and discount wicks informed entry/stop management; TradingView paper-trading glitches limited his ability to modify stops.
    – Practical advice and risk notes: use demo/micro to practice, don’t rush to trade live, be cautious over the weekend due to geopolitical risk, and allow trades room to breathe in volatile markets.
    – Mentorship/philosophy: he positions himself as a price-action teacher who shares concepts freely, defends his methodology against critics, stresses discipline and study, and encourages community learning rather than drama.

  • ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 08, 2026

    ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 08, 2026

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIs96_2rfkE

    Summary — key points from the commentary:

    – Plan/format: reviewed broad market (indices) on daily, then 15‑minute, then crude oil, gold, silver, dollar, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Will update after market open (~6:15 ET). This is commentary/paper trading only, not trade advice.

    – Method & setup: uses line charts plotted on highs for relative strength, watches SMT divergence, volume imbalances / fair value gaps / PD arrays, and compares nearby (March) vs next-month (June) futures for roll/inefficiency signals.

    – Macro view / thesis: geopolitics (Middle East conflict) creates risk‑off conditions. Expect markets to retrace lower this spring — more likely into June (or by fall) — with Nasdaq and S&P showing bearish divergence. Dow is less reliable/too concentrated.

    – Indices (daily / 15‑min): Nasdaq looks weakest (distribution); S&P compressed into an unusually narrow range and likely to draw down; short‑term price structure suggests gap lower, probe into gaps, then continuation down into sell‑side liquidity pools.

    – Dollar and FX: risk‑off should support a stronger USD. EUR/USD and GBP/USD likely to weaken; GBPUSD bearish unless it closes above its consequent‑encroachment midpoint.

    – Crude oil: strongly bullish given supply cuts and Middle East risk — immediate targets ~$130–$150, potential to accelerate higher (200s) if conditions worsen.

    – Gold & silver: gold has bullish potential if it uses specific imbalance levels and stays in the upper half of its range; silver is highly manipulated and risky — speaker would avoid trading it (warns possible engineered drop).

    – Risk management: markets are volatile and idiosyncratic — use low leverage, expect nesting/inefficiency behavior across contracts, and be prepared to change the view if key lows are taken out.

    – Practical notes: will monitor the open and post any adjustments; commentary emphasizes caution and patience rather than chasing short‑term bullish trades.

  • ICT 2026 Smart Money Concepts Lecture \ January 02, 2026

    ICT 2026 Smart Money Concepts Lecture \ January 02, 2026

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1X0A-Lgf9RY

    Michael reviews a live Friday trade to demonstrate the concepts from his previous lesson. He describes using the daily chart’s suspension block, volume imbalances, and wick-based quadrant levels to establish a bearish bias, then looking on lower timeframes for a liquidity sweep and breakdown. He says he prioritizes inefficiencies on the buy side of a swing high and uses the opening-range gap’s midpoint as a practical target.

    He also emphasizes taking partial profits near targets, adjusting stops as price moves in your favor, journaling trades, and practicing on historical data to build independent judgment. He encourages patience and consistent study, while noting that other tools may help some traders but are not essential to his approach.

  • ICT Opening Range Theory \ 1st Presented FVG Logic

    ICT Opening Range Theory \ 1st Presented FVG Logic

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm9Q0NDRxoY

    – The speaker returns after travel (road trips up/down the U.S.), is a bit sick, and gives a focused December NASDAQ mini futures review for Nov 11—brief because of limited time/energy and upcoming teaching sessions with his sons.
    – Market read: price has respected higher‑timeframe weekly/daily volume imbalances, fair value gaps (FVGs), and order blocks; recent action shows a bullish bias as price reclaimed imbalance areas but stalled at upper bounds.
    – Methodology emphasized: read price from higher to lower timeframes, measure PD arrays by premium/discount sensitivity and “consequent encroachment,” and use those zones to define bias (defend upper half = bullish; defend lower half = bearish).
    – Practical rules highlighted: use 30‑minute opening ranges (not 15‑minute) to identify displacement and the first‑presented fair value gap—especially for the London open (1:30–2:00 AM ET) and equity open (9:30–10:00 AM ET); New York “kill zone” is treated differently (7:00–9/10:00 AM ET) because it covers many instruments.
    – Trade setups: look for engineered liquidity, false breakouts (his “turtle soup” concept), inversion FVGs after buy/sell liquidity raids, and time‑based, rule‑driven occurrences that algorithms reliably reproduce.
    – Practical advice and tone: study the longer, detailed content rather than short clips, follow the specific rules he teaches, manage risk/take profits (he points to prior warnings on ENQ, Bitcoin, gold), and remember these setups are probabilistic, not perfect.
    – He reiterates ownership of these methods, frustration with misrepresentations by others, and that his aim is to protect traders and teach durable, repeatable rules.

  • ICT NQ Futures Market Review \ October 1, 2025

    ICT NQ Futures Market Review \ October 1, 2025

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4gTPOnZIYw

    The speaker reviewed a livestream added to the 2025 mentorship playlist that analyzed intraday price action using smart-money concepts (opening-range gaps, premium/discount wicks, quadrants, and fair-value gaps). He walked through chart cleanup and specific gradient levels, explained how sell-side liquidity and consequent encroachment/inversion fair-value gaps drove the move, and showed how those confluences acted as more reliable reference points than simple retail support/resistance (using a London-low example). He stressed documenting PD arrays and major fair-value gaps, applying fib/gradient levels when appropriate, and studying past opening-range gaps and inefficiencies to improve precision. Practical advice: annotate charts thoroughly, practice patiently (treat it like meditation), don’t chase moves, wait for regular trading hours to see how gaps resolve, and avoid trading Forex right now (market looks poor).

  • Focus On Index Futures September 24, 2025 \ Intermediate Term High Continued

    Focus On Index Futures September 24, 2025 \ Intermediate Term High Continued

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DWi2wLWv30

    Summary:

    – Session focus: index futures (Christmas and QE mini) on Sept 24, 2025, using a daily chart and a 1-minute chart to analyze intraday structure.
    – Key structures discussed: premium wicks, quadrants, fair value gaps (FVGs), buy-side liquidity pools, breakers, order blocks, and measuring gaps. Price moved from a pre-market run-up and rejection into successive FVGs and sell-side structure, with several retracements and consolidations before close.
    – Important price events: pre-market buy-side liquidity was targeted, a high was rejected, price filled and tested bearish fair value gaps, broke lower through structure (bearish breaker and order block activity), then consolidated and oscillated around FVG/quadrant levels into the close.
    – Practical point: use gradient levels over premium/discount wicks and determine which wick to use by plotting candidate wicks on your own chart and watching which one price actually respects — there’s no automatic rule, it requires observation and judgment.
    – Takeaway: trade with the visible price structure (wicks, FVGs, quadrants, liquidity pools) and use hands-on verification to pick the relevant levels before the next move.

  • Cooking breakfast and NQ…

    Cooking breakfast and NQ…

    Summary:

    ICT is describing a short “turtle soup” trade setup: entering short above a recent high with a stop just above the inversion/value gap (around 764.5) and targeting lower precession/liquidity pools near ~723 and the 700-area. The thesis: smart money is selling into retail breakouts, so price should stay in the lower half of the current range, form long black candles, and erode through the blue-box liquidity without accumulation — ideally breaking strongly below ~714. Risk management: trade small (one contract), trail stops above the inversion, accept possible stop-outs from spikes, and remove risk as price moves lower. He emphasizes identifying inline and pooled liquidity as the reason price will decline, warns retail longs will be trapped, and encourages practice to learn the method. The commentary mixes trading instruction with casual multitasking (cooking) and encouragement to follow his approach.