ICT Archivist

Tag: innercircletrader

  • Trader Round Up – ICT Livestream Tape Read Follow Through | April 07, 2026

    Summary:

    A live trading mentorship session led by Michael (ICT) with host Kitt and several students asking questions and sharing observations. The focus was on tape reading, intraday models, and trader psychology.

    – Core trading guidance:
    – Tape reading and observing live price action are essential. Michael repeatedly recommends spending weeks/months just watching price (no trading) to build pattern recognition and emotional resilience.
    – Emphasize the first 30 minutes of the regular session (two 15‑minute intervals/opening range) as high‑value for finding expansions and trade opportunities.
    – Toggle the settlement/contract view on/off to find which setting reveals the most recent volume imbalances — use the setting that shows the relevant inefficiency.
    – Fair value gaps: only treat a fair value gap as valid after the candle that forms it closes; the gap’s presence before a high/low is the important signal.
    – Top‑down analysis is recommended (monthly → weekly → daily → shorter TFs), but most actionable intraday work can be done inside 15‑minute and lower timeframes. Lower TFs provide many practice opportunities but require faster decision-making.

    – Risk & execution advice:
    – In current elevated/uncertain markets, dial back trading frequency and leverage; adapt to greater volatility and potential manipulation.
    – Recommended progression: ~2 months of focused tape reading, then ~2 months of demo trading before taking live trades. – Favor process over money: disassociate trades from dollar outcomes, focus on consistent inputs and simple rules.

    – Psychology, consistency & journaling:
    – Patience, rule-following, and consistent daily practice are key. Many traders fail by rushing for profits, trading with emotion, or skipping deliberate observation.
    – Journal feelings and decisions; analyze emotional triggers (fear, greed, pride) to avoid repeating harmful behavior.
    – Progress over perfection — small consistent gains compound; avoid hunting for single big wins.

    – Personal reflections:
    – Michael shared candid life lessons about money, relationships, and how monetary success can distort self‑worth and attract/enable toxic dynamics. He stresses safeguarding personal values and choosing relationships not based on wealth.
    – Other students shared real examples of drawdowns and recovery, reinforcing the need to slow down, return to core protocols, and rebuild discipline.

    – Practical takeaway: simplify the workflow (top‑down to identify barriers, then focus on the opening range/first 30 minutes and tape reading), prioritize non‑monetized learning first, journal, and cultivate patience and consistent habits before increasing risk.

    Quiz

    1) According to ICT, what is the main reason he toggles the chart setting on and off when looking at continuous contracts?
    – A. To hide expired contract data from students – B. To find the setting that shows the most recent volume imbalance
    – C. To reduce chart clutter for presentation
    – D. To compare daily and weekly moving averages

    2) What did ICT say is the best way to learn before taking live trades?
    – A. Jump straight into live trading with small size
    – B. Spend at least a month tape reading, then two months demo trading
    – C. Use market replay until you can predict every candle
    – D. Trade only during news events to gain experience quickly

    3) When discussing fair value gaps, what did ICT say matters most? – A. The gap must appear after the high is taken
    – B. Candle three must close to confirm the fair value gap
    – C. The gap must be on a weekly chart to be valid
    – D. Only wick-to-wick gaps count, not body gaps

    4) What did ICT say about lower timeframes versus higher timeframes?
    – A. Lower timeframes always move faster in price – B. Higher timeframes are the only valid way to trade
    – C. Lower timeframes require more decisions and adjustment, but are useful for learning
    – D. Lower timeframes should never be used by new traders

    5) What advice did ICT give about relationships and money?
    – A. Money should always be shared immediately to prove trust
    – B. You should use money to test whether someone really loves you
    – C. You cannot buy love or pay for friendship
    – D. Being wealthy guarantees healthier relationships

    Answer Key:

    1) B Evidence: “I’m looking for those volume imbalances… What I’m looking for is the one setting that has the volume imbalance is showing in most recent price action.” [00:13:00-00:14:00]
    2) B Evidence: “For at least a month minimum. But I think two months is, is appropriate. Not even trying to take a demo account… Then you gotta do about two months of demo trading…” [00:39:36-00:40:30]
    3) B Evidence: “Candle three has to close for you to have the fair value gap there.” [00:16:38-00:17:00]
    4) C Evidence: “The lower the timeframe, the more requirement for you to make decisions and, and move and, and adjust.” [01:06:43-01:07:30]
    5) C Evidence: “You can’t pay for friendship and you can’t buy love.” [01:37:00-01:37:30]

  • ICT 2026 Market Review \ April 07, 2026

    ICT 2026 Market Review \ April 07, 2026

    https://youtu.be/zpLCZ1Y46Yk

    Summary:

    – ICT: giving market interpretation after a major geopolitical move (Trump/Pakistan/Iran) that jolted markets after U.S. hours.
    – Geopolitical thesis: Administration reportedly delayed strikes (two-week pause/ceasefire conditional on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz). ICT speculates this may be a deliberate tactic to let civilians leave announced targets, then strike later — a temporary lull, not a true de-escalation.
    – Market reaction: massive volatility overnight — crude plunged (quoted ~$109 to ~$91), stock index futures spiked, enormous single-minute price swings in futures (hundreds of handles). These moves occurred in off-hours and surprised many traders.
    – Primary warning: markets are now highly event-driven and manipulable. If you’re inexperienced, undercapitalized, over-leveraged, or trade without stop losses, you risk catastrophic losses. Treat this year as an education year if unsure.
    – Trading stance: speaker remains structurally bullish on crude long-term but expects continued violent, unpredictable swings. He is personally hands-off for now and plans to stop live tape-reading/streaming and shift to educational content to avoid influencing others into risky trades.
    – Technical notes (brief): many instruments show price inefficiencies/volume imbalances and potential reclaimed fair-value gaps; watch whether retracements respect the “upper half” of those ranges. Dollar, EUR, GBP, indices, gold, and silver are all disorganized and sensitive to events.
    – Practical advice: remove risk (demo/training), use stop losses, don’t chase highlight reels or social-media bragging. Expect more volatility tied to news cycles and overnight sessions; be cautious about trading around geopolitical headlines.
    – Personal/ethical note: market moves are tied to real human suffering; this makes trading emotionally difficult. The speaker urges prudence and empathy, and will return to live trading only when conditions make sense.

    Summary: acute, event-driven volatility from geopolitical developments has created high-risk trading conditions. The speaker cautions inexperienced traders to stay out or study, uses technical observations to outline possible scenarios, and will step back from live trading to focus on education.

    Quiz:

    1) What did ICT believe was happening with the two-week ceasefire idea?
    A. It was guaranteed to end the conflict immediately
    B. It was mainly a way to buy time and let people move away from target areas
    C. It was meant to lower gold prices
    D. It was only about reopening stock exchanges

    Answer Key:


    1) B Evidence: “Think about what 2 weeks does. 2 weeks can lull someone into thinking that they got plenty of time.” and “they gave an a reason to to let the people go home and get away from those targets.”

  • ICT 2026 1st Hour Dealing Range \ March 28, 2026

    ICT 2026 1st Hour Dealing Range \ March 28, 2026

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DuByzKLDsc

    Summary:

    – Opening: livestream with background noise; speaker explains teaching style is progressive and based on decades of experience.

    Market outlook (high-level):
    – US dollar: bullish; expects higher dollar index (target ~101.97).
    – EUR/USD and GBP/USD: bearish — price structure, volume imbalances and fair-value gaps point to further downside.
    – Crude oil: would be very bullish if it gaps up and holds separation, but market is manipulated and risky.
    – Bitcoin: speaker is strongly bearish (expects much lower prices; personally believes it could go to zero).
    – Gold & silver: bearish near- to mid-term targets; silver manipulation helped accelerate drops; has 6‑month downside objectives.
    – Copper: watching lows as a potential opportunity.
    – Equities (Dow, MES, NASDAQ/MNQ): bearish — speaker outlined first-half-of‑year downside objectives for major indices.

    Key technical themes and concepts:
    – Uses volume imbalances, (inversion) fair-value gaps, “consequent encroachment,” buy/sell-side liquidity pools and body-vs-wick behavior to read order flow and market intent.
    – Repeated patterns and signatures (e.g., bodies staying in lower half of a range, failure to reach consequent encroachment) indicate bearish continuation; reclaimed/inversion fair-value gaps signal important shifts.

    Trading methodology and lessons:
    – Introduces the “first hour’s dealing range” (9:30–10:30 ET) as a practical algorithmic reference: use its midpoint, octants/quadrants and projected range to anticipate lunch‑time macros and PM session direction.
    – Practical rules: prefer trading the first fair-value gap after the first-hour range is broken; manage risk with dynamic trailing stops (e.g., above the highest high of the last three candles) and use partial exits; use 25/75% fib octant levels to scale or lock profits.
    – Emphasizes paper trading, risk-management, and avoiding over‑leveraging; warns against treating his commentary as personal trade advice.

    Other notes:
    – Warns the market is heavily manipulated/algorithmic; urges skepticism and careful testing.
    – Requests viewers not to post real-money screenshots; offers to run a backtesting/logging series for beginners.

  • Trader Round Up – It’s Friday | March 27, 2026

    Summary:

    The discussion focused on trading psychology, community behavior, and risk management. A debate began over whether experienced traders should be told to “dream small,” with one speaker arguing that advanced traders should aim higher, while beginners need simpler goals.

    The conversation then shifted to whether drama among traders and influencers is harmful or simply part of a competitive industry; the main takeaway was that competition is fine, but mob mentality, harassment, and threats are dangerous and should be avoided.

    Multiple traders shared personal experiences about the emotional challenge of becoming consistently profitable. They stressed that the real difficulty is not finding an edge, but managing yourself, simplifying your process, keeping risk under control, and handling the pressure that comes with success.

    Several speakers emphasized journaling, self-reflection, patience, and focusing on controllable factors rather than social media noise.

    ICT also warned strongly against toxic online behavior, noting that influencer drama can escalate into real-world threats and harm. He encouraged students to avoid divisive behavior, stay focused on trading, and treat the market with discipline and simplicity.

    The session ended with mutual support, gratitude, and encouragement to keep growing personally and professionally.

  • ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 19, 2026

    ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 19, 2026

    https://youtu.be/w2zTfhjScDg

    Summary:

    Overview
    – Live market commentary and teaching on price action across multiple instruments; the speaker uses concepts like fair value gaps, consequent encroachment, volume imbalances, event-horizon midpoints, and buy/sell-side liquidity pools.
    – Repeated emphasis on risk management, selective trading, and that his commentary is not investment advice — do not trade solely on what he says.

    Market views (short form)
    – Micro E‑mini NASDAQ (NQ/MNQ): Watching for a drop to a specific sell‑side liquidity level (~24,485); if price closes below certain wicks/gaps, expect continued downside.
    – Dollar Index: Bias is firm-to-higher; sees prominent discount wick and volume/balance structure that supports further strength. If dollar is firm, expect EUR/GBP weakness.
    – EUR/USD: Bearish bias if bodies stay below a key wick/encroachment level; watching sell‑side liquidity pools and an unresolved fair gap.
    – GBP/USD (Cable): Expects a move lower toward a sell‑side liquidity pool if the pair confirms inversion/fair-value gap behavior; describes the market‑maker sell model and entry/validation rules.
    – Bitcoin/crypto: Speaker is skeptical and personally doesn’t trade crypto; expects lower prices long‑term, outlines how he would manage partial exits if short. Warns of mania and high risk.
    – Gold & Silver: Prefers caution—metals showing signs of a smart‑money exodus (especially silver, where he cites delivery shortages). Recommends taking profits rather than holding into potential deep retracements.
    – Crude Oil: High volatility and manipulation; he personally avoids trading it despite expecting higher prices longer term.
    – S&P (ES): Noted gaps, volume imbalances, and price actions that suggest potential continued downside; March 19, 2026 flagged as a defining day for direction.

    Trading methodology & rules highlighted
    – Primary tools: OHL(C) levels, fair value gaps, consequent encroachment (midpoints), volume imbalances, and liquidity pool mapping — rule‑based, visual order-flow reading rather than reliance on on‑tick internal footprint data.
    – Event horizon (midpoint between lows/highs) used as targeting/partial-exit technique.
    – Inversion fair‑value gap validation requires specific price behavior (closes, reclaims, midpoint tests) before treating zones as tradeable.
    – Position management: use partial exits at structurally meaningful midpoints; take profits and preserve capital; be selective — don’t overtrade.

    Warnings, commentary & community
    – Markets are unusually manipulated and volatile; avoid trading into major news (e.g., FOMC) and be wary of hype.
    – Strong criticism of paid gurus, rebranded/leaked mentorship content, and people who misinterpret his methods; he offers most teaching for free and stresses learning the rules before arguing.
    – Personal/philosophical remarks: he teaches to protect traders from self-inflicted losses, values humility and charity, and encourages using trading gains to bless others rather than chase status.

    Tone & intent
    – The presenter is candid, often colorful, and mixes technical teaching with personal anecdotes and strong opinions. Primary goals: educate on a rule‑based price‑action framework, prevent unnecessary losses, and build disciplined traders.

    Quiz – Recap

    1) According to ICT, what does he explicitly tell viewers regarding taking trades based on his live commentary?
    A. He encourages viewers to copy his trades exactly.
    B. He warns viewers not to take trades based solely on his commentary.
    C. He suggests viewers should always trade during his livestreams.
    D. He advises viewers to use maximum leverage when following his ideas.

    2) What is ICT’s short-to-intermediate bias for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in this session?
    A. Bearish — he expects the Dollar Index to fall significantly.
    B. Neutral — he has no view on the Dollar Index.
    C. Bullish/Firm — he is not bearish and expects it to stay firm or go higher.
    D. He recommends closing all Dollar positions immediately.

    3) Which statement best reflects ICT’s relationship with Bitcoin/crypto
    A. He is long large positions in Bitcoin and recommends others buy.
    B. He actively day-trades crypto and teaches intraday crypto strategies.
    C. He has never traded Bitcoin/crypto and personally would not touch it.
    D. He runs a paid crypto mentorship and solicits students for crypto trades.

    4) What guidance did ICT give regarding gold and silver in the livestream?
    A. He urged viewers to aggressively buy and hold both metals for massive gains.
    B. He warned that metals could retrace, advised taking profits, and noted delivery/supply issues in silver.
    C. He recommended ignoring risk management for precious metals.
    D. He said silver has abundant physical supply and no delivery risk.

    5) What is ICT’s stance on trading crude oil during the market environment he described?
    A. He recommends active trading in crude oil because it’s stable and predictable.
    B. He advises treating crude like a “rattlesnake” and not trading it due to extreme volatility and geopolitical risk.
    C. He suggests using high leverage in crude to maximize gains.
    D. He states crude oil prices are irrelevant and offers no opinion.

    Answer key (with evidence from transcript and approximate location in the recording):

    1) Correct answer: B
    Evidence: “guys are taking trades based on what I’m saying and I asked you not to do that. I know do not do that stuff.” (Opening portion of the transcript / early in the livestream)

    2) Correct answer: C
    Evidence: “I’m not bearish on dollar index. So that means I’m expecting lower prices on euro, lower prices on pound dollar… I personally don’t think that we’re done with the dollar index going up higher.” (Dollar Index section / early–middle)

    3) Correct answer: C
    Evidence: “I have never traded Bitcoin. I’ve never traded crypto… I wouldn’t touch it. I wouldn’t trade it. And that’s just my opinion.” (Bitcoin section / middle of the transcript)

    4) Correct answer: B
    Evidence: “When we were trading here, I said it would be univilized for you not to be taking profit in silver and gold… There is no silver to take delivery of… So the people that were holding it to take delivery, what’s their incentive to hold the contract? None.” (Gold & Silver sections / middle of the transcript)

    5) Correct answer: B
    Evidence: “don’t trade it. … Crude oil doesn’t make sense. It doesn’t make sense. There’s so much volatility now… Treat it like a rattlesnake. … I’ll admire you from a distance, but I’m not trying to touch you because it’s going to bite you.” (Crude oil section / middle of the transcript)

  • Trader Round Up – Post ICT Livestream 3/19 | March 19, 2026

    Summary — Trader Roundup transcript (Mar 19)

    – Opening and tone: A supportive group mentoring session led by ICT (Michael) and host Kitt. Speakers share trading experiences, questions, and personal struggles; vulnerability and authenticity are encouraged.

    – Tilt and coping (Pit Munch): Pit Munch described a specific tilting episode, documented patterns in notes (blood flow to hands → neck → face = danger zone). Effective countermeasures: leave the desk for 10+ minutes, shut down devices, take a long shower until calm, journal the event and end the trading day. Result: she stopped tilting after adopting these steps.

    – Psychology and practice: ICT and Kitt emphasized the importance of procedures to separate impulse from trading decisions, cultivating humility, and building disciplined protocols. Journaling and reflecting on bodily signals were highlighted as powerful tools.

    – Market pressures and funded accounts: Several callers (Jack, others) described stress from rising living costs and war-related market volatility, leading to overtrading and blowing funded accounts. Discussion focused on patience, adapting to changing conditions, and the need to stick to rules rather than chase payouts.

    Technical concepts and teaching points:
    – “First presented” fair value gap (FVG): ICT explained it’s the first FVG that fits the trader’s narrative/criteria, not simply the first gap seen. Narrative (expected price delivery) guides which FVG to use.
    – Inversion FVGs, consequent encroachment, order blocks and market-maker models were discussed as practical schematics (multi-timeframe alignment, one-minute resolution for detail). ICT encouraged students to post charts when asking technical questions for precise feedback.

    – Faith and personal growth: A younger participant (Johann) raised questions about repentance and deservingness. ICT responded that Christians still sin and should confess; spiritual growth involves seeking God’s will, serving others, and aligning life with higher principles rather than treating God as a wish-granting tool.

    – Health, discipline and performance: Multiple speakers stressed physical health as foundational for consistent trading — diet, sleep, breath work, saunas/ice baths and Wim Hof breathing. ICT urged reducing processed foods and sugar, intermittent fasting, and breathing techniques (slow exhale, longer than inhale) to lower heart rate and manage stress. Good physical care improves focus and resilience.

    – Community and process: Emphasis on following protocols when asking questions (include charts), helping others, and using mentorship resources (spaces, recordings). The group closed with gratitude and encouragement to keep studying, serve others, and maintain self-care.

    Overall: The session blended practical trading instruction (FVGs, market-maker setups, timeframes) with strong focus on trading psychology, disciplined routines, physical health, spiritual balance, and community support as keys to long-term success.

    Quiz

    Recap, and test your knowledge

    Answer key below

    Question 1

    What did ICT say is necessary to prevent repeated tilting in trading?

    a) Trade smaller lot sizes
    b) Avoid trading during news events
    c) Put procedures and protocols in place and remove yourself from stimuli
    d) Only trade when confident

    Question 2

    According to ICT, what is the correct definition of a “first presented fair value gap”?

    a) The first gap that appears on the chart each day
    b) Any gap formed during the first hour of trading
    c) The first gap that appears regardless of market conditions
    d) The first gap that fits the narrative and criteria within a trading model

    Question 3

    What did ICT say his current bias in current market conditions?

    a) It is the most reliable way to trade
    b) It should always be followed strictly
    c) He is currently not trusting it and instead focuses on narrative
    d) It should only be used for long-term trades

    Question 4

    What did ICT say about trading markets like crude oil or silver in current conditions?

    a) They are the best markets to trade right now
    b) Traders should increase position size in them
    c) He recommends staying hands-off because they are dangerous
    d) Only beginners should avoid them

    Question 5

    How does ICT describe improving trade entries using smaller timeframes?

    a) Smaller timeframes are unnecessary
    b) Always use the 1-minute chart only
    c) Drop to lower timeframes to see clearer inefficiencies when needed
    d) Only use higher timeframes for accuracy

    Answer Key with Evidence

    1. c) Put procedures and protocols in place and remove yourself from stimuli

    Evidence:

    “If you don’t check yourself, if you don’t put procedures and protocols in place… and you’ve removed yourself from the stimuli.”
    Timestamp: 00:07:30 – 00:07:54

    2. d) The first gap that fits the narrative and criteria within a trading model

    Evidence:

    “It’s the first presented fair value gap that fits the narrative and the criteria I’m looking for within my model.”
    Timestamp: 00:30:00 – 00:30:30

    3. c) He is currently not trusting it and instead focuses on narrative

    Evidence:

    “I have zero bias lately because I don’t trust higher timeframe bias… I’m just looking for what’s the current narrative right now.”
    Timestamp: 00:32:00 – 00:32:30

    4. c) He recommends staying hands-off because they are dangerous

    Evidence:

    “I wouldn’t touch it… it’s giving me every bit of evidence that I should not touch it.”
    Timestamp: 00:56:00 – 00:57:00

    5. c) Drop to lower timeframes to see clearer inefficiencies when needed

    Evidence:

    “I’m gonna keep dropping down to smaller timeframes until I get that… resolution I’m aiming for.”
    Timestamp: 01:05:00 – 01:05:30



  • Trader Round Up – Shotgun Saturday follow through | March 14, 2026

    Summary — Trader Roundup session (high-level takeaways)

    – Format and tone: A wide-ranging community discussion led by Kitt with ICT (Michael) and multiple students sharing trading progress, personal stories, and faith-driven perspectives. The atmosphere blended practical market instruction, mentorship, and spiritual/psychological counsel.

    – Personal testimonies: Daniel described grieving his wife while raising four children and emphasized patience — “let time do the heavy lifting” — and the danger of trading from lack. Several speakers (Wolf, Diamond, Dan) testified to intuition and spiritual guidance, urging humility, surrender, and character development as prerequisites for durable trading success.

    – Core trading principles reinforced:
    – Multi-timeframe alignment (macro → micro) and waiting for clear confluence before entering.
    – Use of ICT concepts: order blocks, P.D. arrays, fair value gaps (FVGs), market-maker model, premium/discount, relative equal highs/lows and lows, and gap/range logic.
    – Practical rules and nuances: the left-of-two-highs/lows rule for higher-probability equal-high/low setups; TGIF (weekly retracement idea — expect 20–30% retraces of a one-directional weekly range; extreme up to ~40%); treat opening-range-gap “grid” (last 5/10/20 days) as premium/discount framework; hold partials around midpoints/10:30 if FVGs don’t fill.
    – Newer terminology explained: mean/threshold, equilibrium, consequential encroachment, and “event horizon” (a naming convention to improve exit planning for price that goes beyond visible levels).

    – Psychology & process: Strong emphasis on demo/practice, removing leverage and emotional pressure while learning, disciplined risk, resisting pride, and treating trading as a craft developed over time. Sanctified stewardship—use returns to bless others—was repeatedly encouraged.

    – Community & resources: Speakers applauded the value of ICT mentorship videos and X/Twitter spaces. Plans underway to organize/ archive content (playlists, annotated resources) and make it easier to study; volunteers and contributors welcomed.

    – Closing theme: The group stressed unity — “we rise by lifting others” — patience, spiritual and mental alignment, and disciplined study as the path to sustainable performance.

    Quiz (Test your trading knowledge)

    1) According to ICT, when the Lord speaks in a non-audible way, how does that voice most often feel?
    A. Loud and thunderous
    B. Calming, felt in the chest/belly, male-sounding, and short/succinct
    C. Indistinguishable from your normal conscience voice
    D. A high-pitched whisper

    2) For a strongly one-directional weekly move, what retracement range does ICT say the week’s close commonly returns to (TGIF idea)?
    A. 5–10% of the weekly range
    B. 10–15% of the weekly range
    C. 20–30% of the weekly range (sometimes up to 40% in extremes)
    D. 50% of the weekly range

    3) What label did ICT confirm for the combined structure formed by multiple past opening-range gaps (e.g., several days or Mondays/Fridays)?
    A. OR Matrix
    B. Opening Range Gap Grid (or simply “grid”)
    C. Gap Mesh
    D. Weekly Mesh

    4) What is ICT referring to with the term “consequent encroachment” (or the idea behind that phrasing)?
    A. A dollar-based stop-loss rule
    B. An expected retracement into about half of an inefficiency / fair-value gap
    C. A volatility indicator that signals expansion
    D. A timeframe label for intraday only

    Answer Key

    1) B
    2) C
    3) B
    4) B

    Evidence

    1) Internal/non-audible voice characteristics (supports Q1 → B)
    – ICT: “I have lots of experiences, uh, where I felt the Lord speak, and I’ve heard, and it’s not always an audible, but it’s, many times it’s like internal, like, it’s like it’s either in your belly or it’s in your chest. … It’s very confident. You want it to keep talking, like you want it to keep speaking to you, but it’s always real short, succinct, just what’s necessary.” — [00:22:39]–[00:23:30]

    2) TGIF weekly retracement percentages (supports Q2 → C)
    – ICT: “TGIF is a retracement idea on the weekly range… if it’s a one directional week… it’s more likely that it’s going to gravitate back towards 20% or 30% of the range that it created for that week… In extremes, it can go to 40%.” — [01:18:43]–[01:20:02]

    3) Label for combined opening-range gaps = “grid” (supports Q3 → B)
    – ICT: “Yes, that’s what I refer to it as. And I just define it by how many, how many one periods I look back. … For you as students, grid is fine.” — [01:04:24]–[01:04:50]

    4) “Consequent encroachment” meaning (supports Q4 → B)
    – ICT: “…The gaps or when there’s an element of inefficiency… I chose the middle, uh, ground instead of saying equilibrium. ‘Cause it’s not equal… So it’s encroaching on the consequence of you holding that position. You’re gonna have to endure retracement up to half of it. So it’s encroaching upon what is reasonable for you to absorb as drawdown…” — [02:16:30]–[02:17:30]

  • Honey, I Shrunk The Learning Curve | March 14, 2026

    Summary:

    • Opening: ICT checks audio, says he’ll keep remarks short and join Trader Round UP afterward.
    • Challenge to critics: Calls out online trolls and challengers, invites anyone to trade live on Axi with real broker statements to prove results rather than trash-talk.
    • Trading philosophy: Advocates small, disciplined growth over gambling — start with one micro contract, target modest weekly/daily goals (e.g., $50/day, $250/week, $1,000/month), and compound as you grow.
    • Methodology: Emphasizes structured price analysis (market structure, grids, PD arrays, order blocks, fair value gaps) and knowing specific levels and times rather than random guessing.
    • Risk management: Warns against over-leveraging, chasing big payouts, and demo/gambling mindsets that condition bad behavior; promotes slow, incremental consistency (e.g., weekly percent gains).
    • Learning process: Teaching filters out lazy students — you must practice in your own account, learn through mistakes, and be patient; no shortcuts to experience.
    • Social media/toxicity: Criticizes online negativity and fake gurus who prioritize engagement over real trading skill; many detractors lack discipline and can’t replicate results.
    • Personal notes and anecdotes: Mentions specific students and incidents (leaderboard competitors, a livestream he advised, students who transformed), and stresses underlying personal work (self-confidence, removing toxic influences) is essential for success.
    • Closing: Encourages disciplined study and practice, reiterates openness to public, verifiable challenges, and signs off to join the Traders Roundup podcast.

    Overall message: Trade methodically, start tiny, focus on structure and consistency, ignore performative online criticism, and do the hard work to become reliably profitable.

    Quiz

    1) What weekly profit target using a single micro contract did ICT suggest as a starting goal?
    A. $50 per week
    B. $250 per week
    C. $1,000 per day
    D. $5,000 per week

    2) What strike-rate did ICT claim to have achieved that week?
    A. 60% strike rate
    B. 75% strike rate
    C. 100% strike rate
    D. 0% strike rate

    3) Which of the following did ICT say about Larry Williams-style over-leveraging?
    A. It’s safe to risk 1–2% per trade.
    B. Williams used extreme leverage, risking ~30% of his account on single trades, which is madness.
    C. Williams never had big drawdowns.
    D. Over-leveraging is the only path to consistent profits.

    Answer key

    1) B
    2) C
    3) B

    Evidence from the transcript
    1) One-micro $250/week / $50/day suggestion (supports answer 2-B)
    – Quote”One micro, we’re just trading with one micro contract. Try to make $250 a week, four weeks in a row… Use one micro to make $50 net each day. If you’re gonna trade every day…”
    – He explicitly gives $250/week (or $50/day) as the starter target.

    2) 100% strike rate claim (supports answer 3-C)
    – Quote:”But if you look at what I did this week, using the smallest of leverage… here it is, the end of the week and we look back and it’s a hundred fucking percent strike rate.”
    – He claims a 100% strike rate for that week.

    3) Larry Williams over-leveraging (supports answer 4-B)
    – Quote “Larry Williams was just going in there like a monster over leveraging to the hilt. Okay? And there’s no doubt about it, you can just look at his statements and look at his positions. That was crazy leverage. Risking 30% of his account on, you know, on single trades.”

  • Honey, I Shrunk The Learning Curve | March 14, 2026

    ICT opens briefly, asks for audio checks, and says he’ll keep the talk short. He challenges anyone who claims they can out-trade him to publicly trade on X with verifiable broker statements—he’ll compare results and prove his methods. He urges traders to start small and disciplined (one micro contract, e.g., $50/day or $250/week) and grow modularly rather than overleveraging or gambling for “lottery” wins. His approach is methodical: identify high-probability PD Arrays (order blocks, fair value gaps), lay out a daily grid of prioritized levels, focus on one market, and practice routine note-taking and recalibration. He criticizes shortcut-seeking, toxic social media, and people who monetize or misrepresent his work, emphasizing that failures are usually user error, not flaws in the concepts. He stresses mindset work—patience, organization, cutting toxicity, and confronting personal limits—and says the learning curve can’t be rushed. He cites decades of experience and free public demonstrations as proof that his system works, encourages quiet practice if needed, and closes by congratulating committed listeners and wishing them a safe weekend.

  • ICT 2026 EOD Market Review \ March 13, 2026

    ICT 2026 EOD Market Review \ March 13, 2026

    https://youtu.be/l7hRTBvK7to

    Summary:

    – ICT reviews end-of-week price action and emphasizes a trading concept he calls “immediate rebalance” — a price delivery behavior (PD Array) he codified — which recently hit his target precisely on the dollar index and signaled directional moves.
    – Dollar strength (immediate rebalance) translated into clear selling opportunities in dollar-quoted FX pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, etc.); EUR/USD and GBP/USD behaved largely as he expected.
    – Technical themes he repeatedly uses: fair value gaps, consequent encroachment (50% midpoint of wicks), rejection blocks, discount/ premium wicks, order blocks, volume imbalances, and gradient levels (quadrants/octants). These guide entries, targets and invalidation.
    – Commodities: crude needs a close above the wick midpoint to confirm a run higher; gold remains range-bound with possible lower pullback; silver he expects could be manipulated lower (cites historical precedent) and may fall quickly if key levels break.
    – Equity futures (micro E-Mini S&P and micro Nasdaq): he anticipates a weak Sunday open (gap down) and continuation lower toward prior lows; recommends using micro contracts and paper/demo trading given current volatility.
    – Trade example: he discussed a micro trade where market structure, fair value gaps and discount wicks informed entry/stop management; TradingView paper-trading glitches limited his ability to modify stops.
    – Practical advice and risk notes: use demo/micro to practice, don’t rush to trade live, be cautious over the weekend due to geopolitical risk, and allow trades room to breathe in volatile markets.
    – Mentorship/philosophy: he positions himself as a price-action teacher who shares concepts freely, defends his methodology against critics, stresses discipline and study, and encourages community learning rather than drama.