https://youtu.be/UQJW9obxt34

Summary:

– ICT will be away from X for about two weeks for Passion Week/Easter and to help friends. They’ll post a few short training videos but won’t be doing live analysis until they return in two Mondays.

Market overview and guidance:
– General stance: markets are messy and volatile with low volumes next week. Avoid live trading, focus on demo/practice and studying price action. Only take very high-conviction setups; preserve capital and manage risk.
– Dollar Index: recently ran up near 100.54. There are daily volume imbalances and wicks suggesting possible retracement lower; if the dollar weakens further, EUR/USD and GBP/USD could rally.
– EUR/USD: choppy, many wicks and conflicting signals. Current structure looks like an inversion fair value gap; bias is toward a move lower (targeting sell-side below ~1.13917) unless price reclaims the level above and becomes a bullish FVG.
– GBP/USD: similar struggle—interpreted as an inversion fair value gap for now; could change on geopolitical news.
– Gold & Silver: gold had an aggressive selloff and cleared key lows. Silver delivered a very large move driven by institutional positioning; both are event-driven and manipulable—recommend staying sidelined.
– Crude oil: ran up but is risky to trade now because geopolitics can move it violently; the speaker thinks it could go much higher ($180–200/bbl) but warns against trading it recklessly.
– Equities (E-mini S&P / Micro NASDAQ): trading in an ugly range. Watch specific volume/imbalance levels—only bullish if price trades and reclaims inversion fair value gaps. A potential new Fed chair could be a catalyst for a pronounced rally, but that’s speculative.

Tone and recap:
– Markets are unpredictable right now—many political/geopolitical influences. The speaker emphasizes caution, risk management, and learning rather than forced trading. They’ll be back with live commentary after their break.

Quiz

1) According to ICT, what should traders do during Passion Week / the upcoming week he referenced?
A. Increase trading frequency to capture volatility
B. Avoid trading with real money and use practice/demo instead
C. Aggressively trade commodities only
D. Move all positions to long-term holds

2) How does ICT describe the gold and silver markets in the transcript?
A. Fair and easy to trade for beginners
B. Highly manipulated and risky, often driven by big institutional interests
C. Always bullish and safe to hold long-term
D. Unaffected by event-driven forces

3) What did ICT say would likely happen if the dollar index “loses this imbalance and go lower”?
A. Dollar strengthens and Euro/pound fall
B. Dollar weakens and Euro/pound rise
C. No significant change across FX pairs
D. Immediate global market crash

4) Which condition would cause ICT to change his current bearish stance on Euro dollar to a bullish one?
A. If Euro dollar trades above and reclaims the inversion fair value gap he identified
B. If gold and silver both spike simultaneously
C. If crude oil drops below $50 per barrel
D. If unemployment numbers are revised downward

5) What did ICT recommend regarding contract size / leverage for index trading this year?
A. Use full leverage and standard E-mini contracts for maximum gains
B. Focus on micro contracts (e.g., MNQ) to avoid overleveraging and encourage smaller risk
C. Only trade options, never futures
D. Avoid all index trading completely

Answer Key
1: B
2: B
3: B
4: A
5: B

Evidence from the transcript (timestamps not available):

Q1 Evidence (supports answer B):
– “because of uh or observance next week of the resurrection of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ… I’m not engaging price action. I’m not trading that. Usually not commenting at all.”
– “don’t take any trades right now. Practice and demo. Just practice. Read price action…”

Q2 Evidence (supports answer B):
– “This market, just like gold, is extremely manipulated.”
– “they suppress it. They’re paper markets… these markets will do it because it’s the good old boys behind it all.”

Q3 Evidence (supports answer B):
– “If we lose this imbalance and go lower, then we’re probably going to see some pressure on dollar index and the Euro dollar and pound dollar will be allowed to go higher.”

Q4 Evidence (supports answer A):
– “if it were to trade above that then I would expect this to become a reclaimed bullish fair value gap but right now the characteristic that it’s under … is that of inversion fair value gap”
– “I’m looking for Euro dollar to give up the ghost and make a run below this low… But if this gets violated to the upside much like Euro dollar then I’m probably wrong.”

Q5 Evidence (supports answer B):
– “I told everybody I would be focusing on that market this year for the sake of encouraging you all not to be trying to overlever your accounts. So what do we have here? We have this wick… MNQ, this is the micro NASDAQ.”