ICT Shotgun Saturday – Trading Taboo Days NFP, FOMC | July 8, 2023

Summary:

ICT’s main message: “taboo days” (major economic reports and certain Mondays) are high-risk for inexperienced traders and require rules, discipline and experience to trade safely.

Key points
– Taboo days = non-farm payrolls (NFP), FOMC, CPI and Mondays in certain calendar contexts. These events create extreme, fast volatility, broker liquidity changes and manual/algorithmic interventions that make positioning ahead of the release highly dangerous for beginners.
– Rule of thumb for new students (< ~6 months with the method): avoid trading these days and do heavy demo/backtesting instead. Don’t trade ahead of the report; wait for the initial run/measure of manipulation, then trade the post‑run inefficiencies when the market’s intentions are clearer.
– Practical scheduling guidance: on normal NFP weeks (no early-week holiday) look for trades Monday–Tuesday and stop taking new positions after the Wednesday morning session; if there is a Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday holiday that week, avoid trading Monday and target Thursday–Friday instead.
– FOMC specifics: treat it as a two‑stage event—wait through the first run (2:00), then trade during/after the conference phase (often ~2:30) when direction and liquidity become clearer. – Brokers often raise margins and pull liquidity ahead of big reports; you can get margin/stop issues and amplified losses—another reason not to be positioned pre-release.

– Emotional/behavioral advice: losses and high-speed volatility commonly induce panic, hyperventilation and bad decision-making. Use breathing exercises, take breaks after losses, journal trades, and build rules (“training wheels”) that you can remove as experience grows.

– Social media caution: avoid publicizing KPIs and chasing social validation—showboating invites trolling and can derail discipline. Many posted trading results are misleading; focus on private, consistent performance and process. –

Final: experienced traders (including ICT and advanced students) can and do trade these days successfully, but only after they’ve developed the required skill, experience and emotional control.

Bottom line: protect capital and mental state early—learn, demo and apply strict rules; only trade big‑report days once you’ve earned the experience to handle them.

Quiz

1) According to ICT in the transcript, which days does he label as “taboo days” that new traders should generally avoid?
A. All Mondays only
B. Any day with low volatility
C. Taboo days like non‑farm payroll Fridays, FOMC days, CPI days (and certain Mondays)
D. Only holiday market sessions

2) When does ICT say it is acceptable to trade non‑farm payroll Friday?
A. Ahead of the report (position before release)
B. Never — he says to avoid it always
C. After the initial run/first half hour following the release
D. Only during the Asian session

3) What guideline does ICT give for entering new positions during a non‑farm payroll week?
A. Enter new positions any time if you feel confident
B. Only take new positions on Friday morning
C. Be done trading by Wednesday morning session — take no new positions after that
D. Enter positions only during the weekend

4) How does ICT describe the typical structure of a FOMC event?
A. A single, predictable directional spike with no follow‑up
B. A two‑stage event: an initial run at 2:00 (often a fake move), then a possible opposite move during the conference portion around 2:30
C. An event that only affects equities, not FX
D. A quiet event with little movement

5) Why does ICT recommend keeping your trading KPIs/stats private rather than posting them on social media?
A. Because brokers require confidentiality
B. Because social media causes division, invites trolls and external validation which can push you into risky or ego‑driven trading
C. Because public KPIs reduce trading performance by algorithm
D. Because revealing stats will make taxes higher

Answer Key

Q1 — Correct: C Evidence: – “let’s talk about taboo days… taboo days are days where I teach the new students…” [0:03:03–0:03:11] – “non‑farm payroll Fridays, fomc days CPI days you know things like that I try to encourage students to avoid those days” [0:03:30–0:03:38] – “if you’re a new Trader and you’re less than six months in experience … you shouldn’t even consider those days” [0:07:52–0:08:09]

Q2 — Correct: C Evidence: – “you absolutely can trade the non‑farm payroll Friday but it can’t be ahead of the report” [0:09:34–0:09:40] – “after the first half an hour is done I can sit there and trade it the rest of the entirety of the day” [0:06:33–0:06:42]

Q3 — Correct: C Evidence: – “non‑farm payroll Fridays … you need to be done trading by Wednesday morning session take no new positions” [0:12:40–0:12:54] – repeated: “no new trade positions are entered after the morning session on Wednesday” [0:36:55–0:36:01] (see earlier statement at ~0:36:55–0:37:05)

Q4 — Correct: B Evidence: – “FMC [FOMC] is generally A two stage event at two o’clock in the afternoon we wait for that initial run … that first run is generally the fake move” [0:23:52–0:24:05] – “during the conference portion it’ll go the other direction … usually at 2:30” [0:24:24–0:24:36]

Q5 — Correct: B Evidence: – “if you take your kpis or your stats as a Trader and you put them on the Internet … you are asking outside audience members that may or may not have any real interest in you becoming a better Trader … many times they don’t want to see you be a better Trader” [1:05:58–1:06:14] – “social media was instituted to cause division … keep your progress private” and “keep your progress private that’s how you have the Excellence of growth” [1:06:18–1:06:31] and [1:10:15–1:10:22]

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