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  • ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 25, 2026

    ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 25, 2026

    https://youtu.be/UQJW9obxt34

    Summary:

    – ICT will be away from X for about two weeks for Passion Week/Easter and to help friends. They’ll post a few short training videos but won’t be doing live analysis until they return in two Mondays.

    Market overview and guidance:
    – General stance: markets are messy and volatile with low volumes next week. Avoid live trading, focus on demo/practice and studying price action. Only take very high-conviction setups; preserve capital and manage risk.
    – Dollar Index: recently ran up near 100.54. There are daily volume imbalances and wicks suggesting possible retracement lower; if the dollar weakens further, EUR/USD and GBP/USD could rally.
    – EUR/USD: choppy, many wicks and conflicting signals. Current structure looks like an inversion fair value gap; bias is toward a move lower (targeting sell-side below ~1.13917) unless price reclaims the level above and becomes a bullish FVG.
    – GBP/USD: similar struggle—interpreted as an inversion fair value gap for now; could change on geopolitical news.
    – Gold & Silver: gold had an aggressive selloff and cleared key lows. Silver delivered a very large move driven by institutional positioning; both are event-driven and manipulable—recommend staying sidelined.
    – Crude oil: ran up but is risky to trade now because geopolitics can move it violently; the speaker thinks it could go much higher ($180–200/bbl) but warns against trading it recklessly.
    – Equities (E-mini S&P / Micro NASDAQ): trading in an ugly range. Watch specific volume/imbalance levels—only bullish if price trades and reclaims inversion fair value gaps. A potential new Fed chair could be a catalyst for a pronounced rally, but that’s speculative.

    Tone and recap:
    – Markets are unpredictable right now—many political/geopolitical influences. The speaker emphasizes caution, risk management, and learning rather than forced trading. They’ll be back with live commentary after their break.

    Quiz

    1) According to ICT, what should traders do during Passion Week / the upcoming week he referenced?
    A. Increase trading frequency to capture volatility
    B. Avoid trading with real money and use practice/demo instead
    C. Aggressively trade commodities only
    D. Move all positions to long-term holds

    2) How does ICT describe the gold and silver markets in the transcript?
    A. Fair and easy to trade for beginners
    B. Highly manipulated and risky, often driven by big institutional interests
    C. Always bullish and safe to hold long-term
    D. Unaffected by event-driven forces

    3) What did ICT say would likely happen if the dollar index “loses this imbalance and go lower”?
    A. Dollar strengthens and Euro/pound fall
    B. Dollar weakens and Euro/pound rise
    C. No significant change across FX pairs
    D. Immediate global market crash

    4) Which condition would cause ICT to change his current bearish stance on Euro dollar to a bullish one?
    A. If Euro dollar trades above and reclaims the inversion fair value gap he identified
    B. If gold and silver both spike simultaneously
    C. If crude oil drops below $50 per barrel
    D. If unemployment numbers are revised downward

    5) What did ICT recommend regarding contract size / leverage for index trading this year?
    A. Use full leverage and standard E-mini contracts for maximum gains
    B. Focus on micro contracts (e.g., MNQ) to avoid overleveraging and encourage smaller risk
    C. Only trade options, never futures
    D. Avoid all index trading completely

    Answer Key
    1: B
    2: B
    3: B
    4: A
    5: B

    Evidence from the transcript (timestamps not available):

    Q1 Evidence (supports answer B):
    – “because of uh or observance next week of the resurrection of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ… I’m not engaging price action. I’m not trading that. Usually not commenting at all.”
    – “don’t take any trades right now. Practice and demo. Just practice. Read price action…”

    Q2 Evidence (supports answer B):
    – “This market, just like gold, is extremely manipulated.”
    – “they suppress it. They’re paper markets… these markets will do it because it’s the good old boys behind it all.”

    Q3 Evidence (supports answer B):
    – “If we lose this imbalance and go lower, then we’re probably going to see some pressure on dollar index and the Euro dollar and pound dollar will be allowed to go higher.”

    Q4 Evidence (supports answer A):
    – “if it were to trade above that then I would expect this to become a reclaimed bullish fair value gap but right now the characteristic that it’s under … is that of inversion fair value gap”
    – “I’m looking for Euro dollar to give up the ghost and make a run below this low… But if this gets violated to the upside much like Euro dollar then I’m probably wrong.”

    Q5 Evidence (supports answer B):
    – “I told everybody I would be focusing on that market this year for the sake of encouraging you all not to be trying to overlever your accounts. So what do we have here? We have this wick… MNQ, this is the micro NASDAQ.”

  • ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 21, 2026

    ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 21, 2026

    https://youtu.be/YrBrgUON9fE

    Summary:

    – Opening: Live market commentary focusing on one teaching — “time distortion” — and chart-based analysis across the dollar index, FX (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), commodities (oil, gold, silver), Bitcoin, and US indices.

    – Time distortion (key lesson): When price sits in a prolonged range on a low timeframe, go to higher timeframes to see the true structure and the inefficiencies (fair-value gaps/volume imbalances) price is trying to resolve. Use the behavior of candlestick bodies relative to the midpoint of those inefficiencies to infer institutional order flow (bodies staying in the lower half = bearish; in the upper half = bullish).

    – Dollar index: Currently in large consolidation with structural shifts. ICT is biased to dollar staying firm or moving higher (flight-to-quality because of ongoing war), but names a clear “line in the sand” — loss of a specific suspension block/volume-bounce zone — that would flip the view bearish and favor higher EUR/GBP.

    – FX (EUR/USD, GBP/USD): Mixed/50–50 setups; direction depends on what the dollar does. Seasonal tendencies could push EUR/GBP higher later, but war and broader uncertainty are overriding factors.

    – Commodities & metals:
    – Crude/Brent: Expect significant upside (mentions targets into $150–$180+ for Brent).
    – Gold & silver: Recent sell-offs after failing key levels; watching for gaps/“consequent encroachment” and possible further downside. Silver is especially event-driven and volatile.

    – Bitcoin: In protracted consolidation with a bearish lean; has specific lower targets if it breaks key lows, though a break above recent highs would turn the bias bullish.

    – US indices: Bearish bias across Dow, S&P, NASDAQ supported by intermarket divergences (SMT) and distribution signals; specific downside targets given (e.g., NASDAQ ~22,779.75 continuous-contract target). Advises focusing on continuous contracts for structural analysis rather than individual delivery months.

    – Trading guidance / risk management:
    – In uncertain, event-driven markets (war, gaps), reduce trade frequency and leverage; be prepared to be wrong.
    – Use continuous futures contracts for top-down analysis.
    – Record timestamps of calls/levels for accountability.
    – If you can’t grasp these concepts within months, reassess your approach — the rules presented are simple and rule-based, not subjective.

    Overall: Market environment is conflicted and risky; use higher-timeframe context, fair-value gaps/volume imbalances, continuous-contract analysis, and conservative sizing to navigate time-distorted price action.

    Quiz – Recap and Test Your Memory

    1) According to ICT, what is the primary way to “fix” time distortion when price is stuck on a low timeframe?
    A. Lower your leverage and trade less frequently
    B. Go up to a higher timeframe to see the inefficiency it is trying to reach
    C. Use only one-minute charts and scalp more
    D. Switch to a different market entirely

    2) When doing top-down analysis of index futures, which contract type does ICT emphasize using for clearer, smoothed higher-timeframe information?
    A. Front-month delivery contract (e.g., June)
    B. Continuous contract (no month code)
    C. Spot cash index only
    D. Only monthly options expiries

    3) ICT identifies a specific “line in the sand” level for the dollar index. What defines that level?
    A. A simple round psychological price level
    B. A moving average crossover
    C. “This volume imbalance low, volume imbalance high” and a suspension block / inversion fair value gap
    D. Fibonacci retracement 61.8%

    4) What is ICT’s overall bias on the major equity indices as expressed in the livestream?
    A. Strongly bullish and expecting sustained new highs
    B. Neutral — no clear bias
    C. Bearish — expecting distribution and lower targets (e.g., Dow, ES, NQ draws)
    D. Only intraday scalping bias, no directional view

    5) What risk-management action does ICT recommend in the current uncertain (war-driven) market environment?
    A. Increase leverage to chase bigger moves
    B. Maintain usual trading frequency and risk
    C. Dial back trading frequency and lower leverage to smallest sizes
    D. Always hold positions overnight to capture weekend gaps

    Answer key:
    1: B
    Evidence: “What time distortion mean?… How do you fix it?… you go up to the higher time frames. … We’re in a one minute. We’re go up to a five minute. … Above 5 minute… 15-minute. It’s already jump off the chart at you.” (time-distortion section, near end)
    2: B
    Evidence: “When you’re looking at trading the indicy market, are you referring to the continuous contract at all?… you always see me go to the continuous contract. … If you look up here. If you see a month ever, that’s not continuous contract. … it’s continuous contract because there’s no month being mentioned here.” (continuous contract discussion)
    3: C
    Evidence: “you got this volume and bounce low, volume and bounce high. This is like the line in the sand for me. If we lose this, then I’m I’m not so optimistic for dollar.” (dollar index discussion)
    4: C
    Evidence: “I’ve been sticking to I’m bearish on all the indices, and I’m telling you where my targets are… We’re seeing heavy distribution here. … that’s why I’ve been sticking to I’m bearish.” (indices discussion)
    5: C
    Evidence: “Whenever I have been confronted with uncertainty, my experience has taught me to dial back frequency, dial back the desire to want to participate and then lower leverage. That means go down to the smallest leverage you can do.” (risk-management / war discussion)

  • ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 19, 2026

    ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 19, 2026

    https://youtu.be/w2zTfhjScDg

    Summary:

    Overview
    – Live market commentary and teaching on price action across multiple instruments; the speaker uses concepts like fair value gaps, consequent encroachment, volume imbalances, event-horizon midpoints, and buy/sell-side liquidity pools.
    – Repeated emphasis on risk management, selective trading, and that his commentary is not investment advice — do not trade solely on what he says.

    Market views (short form)
    – Micro E‑mini NASDAQ (NQ/MNQ): Watching for a drop to a specific sell‑side liquidity level (~24,485); if price closes below certain wicks/gaps, expect continued downside.
    – Dollar Index: Bias is firm-to-higher; sees prominent discount wick and volume/balance structure that supports further strength. If dollar is firm, expect EUR/GBP weakness.
    – EUR/USD: Bearish bias if bodies stay below a key wick/encroachment level; watching sell‑side liquidity pools and an unresolved fair gap.
    – GBP/USD (Cable): Expects a move lower toward a sell‑side liquidity pool if the pair confirms inversion/fair-value gap behavior; describes the market‑maker sell model and entry/validation rules.
    – Bitcoin/crypto: Speaker is skeptical and personally doesn’t trade crypto; expects lower prices long‑term, outlines how he would manage partial exits if short. Warns of mania and high risk.
    – Gold & Silver: Prefers caution—metals showing signs of a smart‑money exodus (especially silver, where he cites delivery shortages). Recommends taking profits rather than holding into potential deep retracements.
    – Crude Oil: High volatility and manipulation; he personally avoids trading it despite expecting higher prices longer term.
    – S&P (ES): Noted gaps, volume imbalances, and price actions that suggest potential continued downside; March 19, 2026 flagged as a defining day for direction.

    Trading methodology & rules highlighted
    – Primary tools: OHL(C) levels, fair value gaps, consequent encroachment (midpoints), volume imbalances, and liquidity pool mapping — rule‑based, visual order-flow reading rather than reliance on on‑tick internal footprint data.
    – Event horizon (midpoint between lows/highs) used as targeting/partial-exit technique.
    – Inversion fair‑value gap validation requires specific price behavior (closes, reclaims, midpoint tests) before treating zones as tradeable.
    – Position management: use partial exits at structurally meaningful midpoints; take profits and preserve capital; be selective — don’t overtrade.

    Warnings, commentary & community
    – Markets are unusually manipulated and volatile; avoid trading into major news (e.g., FOMC) and be wary of hype.
    – Strong criticism of paid gurus, rebranded/leaked mentorship content, and people who misinterpret his methods; he offers most teaching for free and stresses learning the rules before arguing.
    – Personal/philosophical remarks: he teaches to protect traders from self-inflicted losses, values humility and charity, and encourages using trading gains to bless others rather than chase status.

    Tone & intent
    – The presenter is candid, often colorful, and mixes technical teaching with personal anecdotes and strong opinions. Primary goals: educate on a rule‑based price‑action framework, prevent unnecessary losses, and build disciplined traders.

    Quiz – Recap

    1) According to ICT, what does he explicitly tell viewers regarding taking trades based on his live commentary?
    A. He encourages viewers to copy his trades exactly.
    B. He warns viewers not to take trades based solely on his commentary.
    C. He suggests viewers should always trade during his livestreams.
    D. He advises viewers to use maximum leverage when following his ideas.

    2) What is ICT’s short-to-intermediate bias for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in this session?
    A. Bearish — he expects the Dollar Index to fall significantly.
    B. Neutral — he has no view on the Dollar Index.
    C. Bullish/Firm — he is not bearish and expects it to stay firm or go higher.
    D. He recommends closing all Dollar positions immediately.

    3) Which statement best reflects ICT’s relationship with Bitcoin/crypto
    A. He is long large positions in Bitcoin and recommends others buy.
    B. He actively day-trades crypto and teaches intraday crypto strategies.
    C. He has never traded Bitcoin/crypto and personally would not touch it.
    D. He runs a paid crypto mentorship and solicits students for crypto trades.

    4) What guidance did ICT give regarding gold and silver in the livestream?
    A. He urged viewers to aggressively buy and hold both metals for massive gains.
    B. He warned that metals could retrace, advised taking profits, and noted delivery/supply issues in silver.
    C. He recommended ignoring risk management for precious metals.
    D. He said silver has abundant physical supply and no delivery risk.

    5) What is ICT’s stance on trading crude oil during the market environment he described?
    A. He recommends active trading in crude oil because it’s stable and predictable.
    B. He advises treating crude like a “rattlesnake” and not trading it due to extreme volatility and geopolitical risk.
    C. He suggests using high leverage in crude to maximize gains.
    D. He states crude oil prices are irrelevant and offers no opinion.

    Answer key (with evidence from transcript and approximate location in the recording):

    1) Correct answer: B
    Evidence: “guys are taking trades based on what I’m saying and I asked you not to do that. I know do not do that stuff.” (Opening portion of the transcript / early in the livestream)

    2) Correct answer: C
    Evidence: “I’m not bearish on dollar index. So that means I’m expecting lower prices on euro, lower prices on pound dollar… I personally don’t think that we’re done with the dollar index going up higher.” (Dollar Index section / early–middle)

    3) Correct answer: C
    Evidence: “I have never traded Bitcoin. I’ve never traded crypto… I wouldn’t touch it. I wouldn’t trade it. And that’s just my opinion.” (Bitcoin section / middle of the transcript)

    4) Correct answer: B
    Evidence: “When we were trading here, I said it would be univilized for you not to be taking profit in silver and gold… There is no silver to take delivery of… So the people that were holding it to take delivery, what’s their incentive to hold the contract? None.” (Gold & Silver sections / middle of the transcript)

    5) Correct answer: B
    Evidence: “don’t trade it. … Crude oil doesn’t make sense. It doesn’t make sense. There’s so much volatility now… Treat it like a rattlesnake. … I’ll admire you from a distance, but I’m not trying to touch you because it’s going to bite you.” (Crude oil section / middle of the transcript)

  • Trader Round Up – Post ICT Livestream 3/19 | March 19, 2026

    Summary — Trader Roundup transcript (Mar 19)

    – Opening and tone: A supportive group mentoring session led by ICT (Michael) and host Kitt. Speakers share trading experiences, questions, and personal struggles; vulnerability and authenticity are encouraged.

    – Tilt and coping (Pit Munch): Pit Munch described a specific tilting episode, documented patterns in notes (blood flow to hands → neck → face = danger zone). Effective countermeasures: leave the desk for 10+ minutes, shut down devices, take a long shower until calm, journal the event and end the trading day. Result: she stopped tilting after adopting these steps.

    – Psychology and practice: ICT and Kitt emphasized the importance of procedures to separate impulse from trading decisions, cultivating humility, and building disciplined protocols. Journaling and reflecting on bodily signals were highlighted as powerful tools.

    – Market pressures and funded accounts: Several callers (Jack, others) described stress from rising living costs and war-related market volatility, leading to overtrading and blowing funded accounts. Discussion focused on patience, adapting to changing conditions, and the need to stick to rules rather than chase payouts.

    Technical concepts and teaching points:
    – “First presented” fair value gap (FVG): ICT explained it’s the first FVG that fits the trader’s narrative/criteria, not simply the first gap seen. Narrative (expected price delivery) guides which FVG to use.
    – Inversion FVGs, consequent encroachment, order blocks and market-maker models were discussed as practical schematics (multi-timeframe alignment, one-minute resolution for detail). ICT encouraged students to post charts when asking technical questions for precise feedback.

    – Faith and personal growth: A younger participant (Johann) raised questions about repentance and deservingness. ICT responded that Christians still sin and should confess; spiritual growth involves seeking God’s will, serving others, and aligning life with higher principles rather than treating God as a wish-granting tool.

    – Health, discipline and performance: Multiple speakers stressed physical health as foundational for consistent trading — diet, sleep, breath work, saunas/ice baths and Wim Hof breathing. ICT urged reducing processed foods and sugar, intermittent fasting, and breathing techniques (slow exhale, longer than inhale) to lower heart rate and manage stress. Good physical care improves focus and resilience.

    – Community and process: Emphasis on following protocols when asking questions (include charts), helping others, and using mentorship resources (spaces, recordings). The group closed with gratitude and encouragement to keep studying, serve others, and maintain self-care.

    Overall: The session blended practical trading instruction (FVGs, market-maker setups, timeframes) with strong focus on trading psychology, disciplined routines, physical health, spiritual balance, and community support as keys to long-term success.

    Quiz

    Recap, and test your knowledge

    Answer key below

    Question 1

    What did ICT say is necessary to prevent repeated tilting in trading?

    a) Trade smaller lot sizes
    b) Avoid trading during news events
    c) Put procedures and protocols in place and remove yourself from stimuli
    d) Only trade when confident

    Question 2

    According to ICT, what is the correct definition of a “first presented fair value gap”?

    a) The first gap that appears on the chart each day
    b) Any gap formed during the first hour of trading
    c) The first gap that appears regardless of market conditions
    d) The first gap that fits the narrative and criteria within a trading model

    Question 3

    What did ICT say his current bias in current market conditions?

    a) It is the most reliable way to trade
    b) It should always be followed strictly
    c) He is currently not trusting it and instead focuses on narrative
    d) It should only be used for long-term trades

    Question 4

    What did ICT say about trading markets like crude oil or silver in current conditions?

    a) They are the best markets to trade right now
    b) Traders should increase position size in them
    c) He recommends staying hands-off because they are dangerous
    d) Only beginners should avoid them

    Question 5

    How does ICT describe improving trade entries using smaller timeframes?

    a) Smaller timeframes are unnecessary
    b) Always use the 1-minute chart only
    c) Drop to lower timeframes to see clearer inefficiencies when needed
    d) Only use higher timeframes for accuracy

    Answer Key with Evidence

    1. c) Put procedures and protocols in place and remove yourself from stimuli

    Evidence:

    “If you don’t check yourself, if you don’t put procedures and protocols in place… and you’ve removed yourself from the stimuli.”
    Timestamp: 00:07:30 – 00:07:54

    2. d) The first gap that fits the narrative and criteria within a trading model

    Evidence:

    “It’s the first presented fair value gap that fits the narrative and the criteria I’m looking for within my model.”
    Timestamp: 00:30:00 – 00:30:30

    3. c) He is currently not trusting it and instead focuses on narrative

    Evidence:

    “I have zero bias lately because I don’t trust higher timeframe bias… I’m just looking for what’s the current narrative right now.”
    Timestamp: 00:32:00 – 00:32:30

    4. c) He recommends staying hands-off because they are dangerous

    Evidence:

    “I wouldn’t touch it… it’s giving me every bit of evidence that I should not touch it.”
    Timestamp: 00:56:00 – 00:57:00

    5. c) Drop to lower timeframes to see clearer inefficiencies when needed

    Evidence:

    “I’m gonna keep dropping down to smaller timeframes until I get that… resolution I’m aiming for.”
    Timestamp: 01:05:00 – 01:05:30



  • Trader Round Up – Shotgun Saturday follow through | March 14, 2026

    Summary — Trader Roundup session (high-level takeaways)

    – Format and tone: A wide-ranging community discussion led by Kitt with ICT (Michael) and multiple students sharing trading progress, personal stories, and faith-driven perspectives. The atmosphere blended practical market instruction, mentorship, and spiritual/psychological counsel.

    – Personal testimonies: Daniel described grieving his wife while raising four children and emphasized patience — “let time do the heavy lifting” — and the danger of trading from lack. Several speakers (Wolf, Diamond, Dan) testified to intuition and spiritual guidance, urging humility, surrender, and character development as prerequisites for durable trading success.

    – Core trading principles reinforced:
    – Multi-timeframe alignment (macro → micro) and waiting for clear confluence before entering.
    – Use of ICT concepts: order blocks, P.D. arrays, fair value gaps (FVGs), market-maker model, premium/discount, relative equal highs/lows and lows, and gap/range logic.
    – Practical rules and nuances: the left-of-two-highs/lows rule for higher-probability equal-high/low setups; TGIF (weekly retracement idea — expect 20–30% retraces of a one-directional weekly range; extreme up to ~40%); treat opening-range-gap “grid” (last 5/10/20 days) as premium/discount framework; hold partials around midpoints/10:30 if FVGs don’t fill.
    – Newer terminology explained: mean/threshold, equilibrium, consequential encroachment, and “event horizon” (a naming convention to improve exit planning for price that goes beyond visible levels).

    – Psychology & process: Strong emphasis on demo/practice, removing leverage and emotional pressure while learning, disciplined risk, resisting pride, and treating trading as a craft developed over time. Sanctified stewardship—use returns to bless others—was repeatedly encouraged.

    – Community & resources: Speakers applauded the value of ICT mentorship videos and X/Twitter spaces. Plans underway to organize/ archive content (playlists, annotated resources) and make it easier to study; volunteers and contributors welcomed.

    – Closing theme: The group stressed unity — “we rise by lifting others” — patience, spiritual and mental alignment, and disciplined study as the path to sustainable performance.

    Quiz (Test your trading knowledge)

    1) According to ICT, when the Lord speaks in a non-audible way, how does that voice most often feel?
    A. Loud and thunderous
    B. Calming, felt in the chest/belly, male-sounding, and short/succinct
    C. Indistinguishable from your normal conscience voice
    D. A high-pitched whisper

    2) For a strongly one-directional weekly move, what retracement range does ICT say the week’s close commonly returns to (TGIF idea)?
    A. 5–10% of the weekly range
    B. 10–15% of the weekly range
    C. 20–30% of the weekly range (sometimes up to 40% in extremes)
    D. 50% of the weekly range

    3) What label did ICT confirm for the combined structure formed by multiple past opening-range gaps (e.g., several days or Mondays/Fridays)?
    A. OR Matrix
    B. Opening Range Gap Grid (or simply “grid”)
    C. Gap Mesh
    D. Weekly Mesh

    4) What is ICT referring to with the term “consequent encroachment” (or the idea behind that phrasing)?
    A. A dollar-based stop-loss rule
    B. An expected retracement into about half of an inefficiency / fair-value gap
    C. A volatility indicator that signals expansion
    D. A timeframe label for intraday only

    Answer Key

    1) B
    2) C
    3) B
    4) B

    Evidence

    1) Internal/non-audible voice characteristics (supports Q1 → B)
    – ICT: “I have lots of experiences, uh, where I felt the Lord speak, and I’ve heard, and it’s not always an audible, but it’s, many times it’s like internal, like, it’s like it’s either in your belly or it’s in your chest. … It’s very confident. You want it to keep talking, like you want it to keep speaking to you, but it’s always real short, succinct, just what’s necessary.” — [00:22:39]–[00:23:30]

    2) TGIF weekly retracement percentages (supports Q2 → C)
    – ICT: “TGIF is a retracement idea on the weekly range… if it’s a one directional week… it’s more likely that it’s going to gravitate back towards 20% or 30% of the range that it created for that week… In extremes, it can go to 40%.” — [01:18:43]–[01:20:02]

    3) Label for combined opening-range gaps = “grid” (supports Q3 → B)
    – ICT: “Yes, that’s what I refer to it as. And I just define it by how many, how many one periods I look back. … For you as students, grid is fine.” — [01:04:24]–[01:04:50]

    4) “Consequent encroachment” meaning (supports Q4 → B)
    – ICT: “…The gaps or when there’s an element of inefficiency… I chose the middle, uh, ground instead of saying equilibrium. ‘Cause it’s not equal… So it’s encroaching on the consequence of you holding that position. You’re gonna have to endure retracement up to half of it. So it’s encroaching upon what is reasonable for you to absorb as drawdown…” — [02:16:30]–[02:17:30]

  • Honey, I Shrunk The Learning Curve | March 14, 2026

    Summary:

    • Opening: ICT checks audio, says he’ll keep remarks short and join Trader Round UP afterward.
    • Challenge to critics: Calls out online trolls and challengers, invites anyone to trade live on Axi with real broker statements to prove results rather than trash-talk.
    • Trading philosophy: Advocates small, disciplined growth over gambling — start with one micro contract, target modest weekly/daily goals (e.g., $50/day, $250/week, $1,000/month), and compound as you grow.
    • Methodology: Emphasizes structured price analysis (market structure, grids, PD arrays, order blocks, fair value gaps) and knowing specific levels and times rather than random guessing.
    • Risk management: Warns against over-leveraging, chasing big payouts, and demo/gambling mindsets that condition bad behavior; promotes slow, incremental consistency (e.g., weekly percent gains).
    • Learning process: Teaching filters out lazy students — you must practice in your own account, learn through mistakes, and be patient; no shortcuts to experience.
    • Social media/toxicity: Criticizes online negativity and fake gurus who prioritize engagement over real trading skill; many detractors lack discipline and can’t replicate results.
    • Personal notes and anecdotes: Mentions specific students and incidents (leaderboard competitors, a livestream he advised, students who transformed), and stresses underlying personal work (self-confidence, removing toxic influences) is essential for success.
    • Closing: Encourages disciplined study and practice, reiterates openness to public, verifiable challenges, and signs off to join the Traders Roundup podcast.

    Overall message: Trade methodically, start tiny, focus on structure and consistency, ignore performative online criticism, and do the hard work to become reliably profitable.

    Quiz

    1) What weekly profit target using a single micro contract did ICT suggest as a starting goal?
    A. $50 per week
    B. $250 per week
    C. $1,000 per day
    D. $5,000 per week

    2) What strike-rate did ICT claim to have achieved that week?
    A. 60% strike rate
    B. 75% strike rate
    C. 100% strike rate
    D. 0% strike rate

    3) Which of the following did ICT say about Larry Williams-style over-leveraging?
    A. It’s safe to risk 1–2% per trade.
    B. Williams used extreme leverage, risking ~30% of his account on single trades, which is madness.
    C. Williams never had big drawdowns.
    D. Over-leveraging is the only path to consistent profits.

    Answer key

    1) B
    2) C
    3) B

    Evidence from the transcript
    1) One-micro $250/week / $50/day suggestion (supports answer 2-B)
    – Quote”One micro, we’re just trading with one micro contract. Try to make $250 a week, four weeks in a row… Use one micro to make $50 net each day. If you’re gonna trade every day…”
    – He explicitly gives $250/week (or $50/day) as the starter target.

    2) 100% strike rate claim (supports answer 3-C)
    – Quote:”But if you look at what I did this week, using the smallest of leverage… here it is, the end of the week and we look back and it’s a hundred fucking percent strike rate.”
    – He claims a 100% strike rate for that week.

    3) Larry Williams over-leveraging (supports answer 4-B)
    – Quote “Larry Williams was just going in there like a monster over leveraging to the hilt. Okay? And there’s no doubt about it, you can just look at his statements and look at his positions. That was crazy leverage. Risking 30% of his account on, you know, on single trades.”

  • Honey, I Shrunk The Learning Curve | March 14, 2026

    ICT opens briefly, asks for audio checks, and says he’ll keep the talk short. He challenges anyone who claims they can out-trade him to publicly trade on X with verifiable broker statements—he’ll compare results and prove his methods. He urges traders to start small and disciplined (one micro contract, e.g., $50/day or $250/week) and grow modularly rather than overleveraging or gambling for “lottery” wins. His approach is methodical: identify high-probability PD Arrays (order blocks, fair value gaps), lay out a daily grid of prioritized levels, focus on one market, and practice routine note-taking and recalibration. He criticizes shortcut-seeking, toxic social media, and people who monetize or misrepresent his work, emphasizing that failures are usually user error, not flaws in the concepts. He stresses mindset work—patience, organization, cutting toxicity, and confronting personal limits—and says the learning curve can’t be rushed. He cites decades of experience and free public demonstrations as proof that his system works, encourages quiet practice if needed, and closes by congratulating committed listeners and wishing them a safe weekend.

  • ICT 2026 EOD Market Review \ March 13, 2026

    ICT 2026 EOD Market Review \ March 13, 2026

    https://youtu.be/l7hRTBvK7to

    Summary:

    – ICT reviews end-of-week price action and emphasizes a trading concept he calls “immediate rebalance” — a price delivery behavior (PD Array) he codified — which recently hit his target precisely on the dollar index and signaled directional moves.
    – Dollar strength (immediate rebalance) translated into clear selling opportunities in dollar-quoted FX pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, etc.); EUR/USD and GBP/USD behaved largely as he expected.
    – Technical themes he repeatedly uses: fair value gaps, consequent encroachment (50% midpoint of wicks), rejection blocks, discount/ premium wicks, order blocks, volume imbalances, and gradient levels (quadrants/octants). These guide entries, targets and invalidation.
    – Commodities: crude needs a close above the wick midpoint to confirm a run higher; gold remains range-bound with possible lower pullback; silver he expects could be manipulated lower (cites historical precedent) and may fall quickly if key levels break.
    – Equity futures (micro E-Mini S&P and micro Nasdaq): he anticipates a weak Sunday open (gap down) and continuation lower toward prior lows; recommends using micro contracts and paper/demo trading given current volatility.
    – Trade example: he discussed a micro trade where market structure, fair value gaps and discount wicks informed entry/stop management; TradingView paper-trading glitches limited his ability to modify stops.
    – Practical advice and risk notes: use demo/micro to practice, don’t rush to trade live, be cautious over the weekend due to geopolitical risk, and allow trades room to breathe in volatile markets.
    – Mentorship/philosophy: he positions himself as a price-action teacher who shares concepts freely, defends his methodology against critics, stresses discipline and study, and encourages community learning rather than drama.

  • Trader Round Up – ICT Follow Through | March 11, 2026

    Summary — Trader Roundup session (Michael \”ICT\”, Kitt, students)

    – Core lesson: apply PD (premium/discount) arrays as a primary framework — order block → fair value gap → breakaway/measuring gaps — and treat suspension blocks like other inefficiencies (use upper half if bullish, lower if bearish).

    – Nesting matters: when multiple PD elements (e.g., opening-range gap, new-week/day gaps, event horizons, order blocks) overlap, the area gains momentum/validity and often produces strong moves.

    – Priorities for levels: give priority to regular trading-hours opening-range gaps (they’re freshest). Use event horizons between any inefficiencies (including new-week/new-day gaps).\n- Timeframes & fractals: concepts are fractal. If order blocks are getting run through on a low timeframe, consider the same structure on a higher timeframe. Use quarters → eighths (and smaller subdivisions) to better visualize continuous order flow.

    Entries/exits:
    – Rejection blocks can be used for turtle-soup style entries (buy-stop above the opening price if the candlestick was breached).

    – Fair value gaps on low timeframes are permissible to trade; stop placement should follow the specific PD rules (e.g., wick/high + tick).

    Volatility & risk management (repeated emphasis):
    – Current global events have raised volatility (gold/silver/crude especially). Avoid trading high-volatility markets with real capital unless experienced and well-capitalized.
    – Use micro contracts, significantly lower leverage, and wider stops in this environment. If you take a loss for the day, stop trading — paper/demo trade instead.
    – Consider tools that lock you out after daily loss to enforce discipline.
    – Practical trading habits: tape-read and use the additional intra-quadrant lines for visual continuous order-flow reading; journal trades (Discord recommended).

    – Teaching/learning guidance:
    – Michael is sharing much material free; for a structured path, students recommended to prioritize 2022 mentorship / Core Content (especially months 4, 8 and 12): month 4 (PD arrays/order block theory), month 8 (when/not to trade, intraday protraction), month 12 (fractal application across OW/D/W/M).
    – For newcomers confused by newer content, stick to the 2022/core-content playlist first, then layer newer material.

    -Community notes: wide range of students (ages, professions, countries); emphasis on humility, entrepreneurship, and steady skill-building rather than chasing big, risky leverage.

    Overall tone: practical, risk-averse coaching focused on mastering PD-array order-flow concepts, using proper risk sizing (one-micro mindset), and studying core materials in sequence.

    Questions (test your knowledge)

    1) According to ICT, how should you treat a “suspension block” when using it on a chart?
    A. As a unique structure unrelated to other inefficiencies
    B. Like any other inefficiency (e.g., fair value gap or order block) — use the upper half if bullish and lower half if bearish
    C. Only as an entry signal for long trades
    D. Only as a stop-loss location for short trades

    2) ICT explains adding smaller levels (quarters, eighths, etc.) between larger quadrant lines primarily to:
    A. Make charts look more professional
    B. Force you to count candlestick buyers and sellers manually
    C. Give a closer, more detailed read of continuous order flow (visual representation of ongoing buying and selling)
    D. Replace the need to watch higher timeframe structure

    3) What does ICT say about “nesting” PD arrays (multiple PD structures overlapping in the same area)?
    A. Nesting makes the area irrelevant for trading
    B. Nesting decreases the predictive value of the levels
    C. Nesting significantly increases the strength/validity of the idea and you should anticipate strong movement/fireworks when price gets into that area
    D. Nesting indicates the market will always return to that zone repeatedly

    4) Regarding trading volatile instruments like gold, silver, and crude oil during elevated geopolitical volatility, ICT’s guidance is to:
    A. Increase leverage and trade more contracts to chase big moves
    B. Avoid deploying real capital — paper/demo‑trade or tape‑read instead; keep risk very small if you do touch them
    C. Only trade those markets at night
    D. Ignore volatility and use the same entries/stops as normal

    5) After taking a loss (especially in the current elevated volatility environment), ICT recommends:
    A. Immediately try to make the money back with larger size
    B. Double your position and re-enter the same trade idea
    C. Roll back leverage, trade one micro contract, stop for the day after a loss and spend time tape‑reading / practicing discipline
    D. Quit trading forever

    Answer key
    1 — B
    2 — C
    3 — C
    4 — B
    5 — C
    Evidence from the transcript (quotes + timestamps)

    1) Suspension block treated like other inefficiencies:
    – ICT: “suspension block. And it’s basically treated the same way as any old inefficiency, like a Sibi or a bisi. If it’s bullish, okay, you’re gonna use the upper half. Watch price respected. If it’s bearish, you’re gonna watch the lower half and, and it should respect it.\” [00:00:07–00:00:43]

    2) Purpose of adding smaller levels (quarters/eighths/etc.):
    – ICT: “If you want to have a better, closer read on continuous order flow… Having the smaller levels in between them, this gives you a greater detail for reading, continuous order flow. You don’t need to go on the candlesticks and look at numbers of how many people bought or sold. You’re getting a visual representation of ongoing buying and selling.” [00:02:46–00:03:29]

    3) Nesting PD arrays increases strength:
    – ICT: “Whenever you have nesting P.D arrays It provides significant increases in the strength or validity behind the ideas you are implementing… the more behind that idea and the grouping that P.D arrays show and shared in an area or arrange, once price gets in it anticipate a lot of fireworks.” [00:22:42–00:23:45]

    4) Advice on trading gold/silver/crude during elevated volatility:
    – ICT: “I have to be very, very careful in what I say about these types of markets. That’s why I backpedaled from silver and gold because I knew the volatility was gonna start hurting people… crude oil has entered that same realm… you can touch it if you want to, you can risk it, you can do all those things, but… I would not be touching it, especially if you’re not experienced well or well capitalized.” [00:11:11–00:13:04]
    – ICT later: “Paper trade them. Demo trade ’em, you know, where it can’t hurt you or tape read them… should we trade these markets? No.” [00:16:19–00:16:19 and 00:16:19–00:16:19 — context around 00:16:19–00:17:35]

    5) One micro, stop after a loss, tape‑read practice:
    – ICT: “One you should be doing one micro. We’re in some serious… Even if you’re trading a couple micros… my advice to you is, is when you take a loss, stop, go into just tape reading. That’s what you should be doing right now… if you take a loss for the day, no matter what size it is, this is the skillset that you’re gonna practice…” [00:34:05–00:37:27]”

  • TRU – POST ICT Livestream 3/10 | March 10, 2026

    Summary:

    In a live trading discussion, participants question confusing ES price action around 10:00 AM, fair value gap inversions, and whether a move was manipulation; Michael explains that manipulation can occur unexpectedly, so traders must use stop losses, avoid over-leverage, and treat invalidation as information to potentially reverse bias. He ties direction to higher-timeframe context, noting daily-chart relative equal highs and specific reference levels (e.g., February 4 and February 25 highs around 25,514.5) as likely buy-side targets amid heavy market manipulation and low excitement due to small opening-range disparity. The group discusses using PD arrays, opening range gaps, engulfment-retracement-inversion patterns, journaling, and disciplined execution, with reminders not to share specific trades. Additional Q&A covers order blocks (including consecutive candles), propulsion blocks, silver bullet usage, personal risk management statistics, and “Easter egg” study prompts, alongside recurring platform technical issues.

    Quiz (Answer Key below)

    Question 1

    According to ICT, what is the primary protection a trader should always use when entering a trade?

    A. Only trade during high-volume sessions
    B. Use a stop loss because manipulation can occur at any time
    C. Wait for confirmation from multiple indicators
    D. Only trade when the market has large opening gaps

    Question 2

    What condition did ICT say often leads to a 50/50 market environment at the start of the session?

    A. When overnight liquidity is very high
    B. When the market opens above the previous day’s high
    C. When there is no large opening range gap
    D. When price trades above the daily equilibrium

    Question 3

    Why did ICT believe the market had a higher probability of moving upward based on the daily chart?

    A. Because institutional buying volume increased
    B. Because the market returned inside a range after taking sellside liquidity
    C. Because the market opened above the weekly high
    D. Because momentum indicators were oversold

    Question 4

    According to ICT, if a trade setup fails and price does not move in the expected direction, what should traders consider?

    A. Close the platform and wait until tomorrow
    B. Add more leverage to the position
    C. Consider that price may move in the opposite direction and use prior imbalances as support/resistance
    D. Ignore the signal and wait for news events

    Question 5

    What did ICT say traders should do if they cannot tolerate drawdown through several PD arrays?

    A. Use longer-term timeframes
    B. Increase position size
    C. Avoid trading during New York session
    D. Reduce leverage because they are over-leveraged

    Question 6

    When does a down-close candle become a bullish order block, according to ICT?

    A. When price closes above the candle
    B. When price trades one tick above the candle’s opening price
    C. When the candle forms during the London session
    D. When the candle has a large wick

    Answer Key (with Evidence)

    1. B — Use a stop loss because manipulation can occur anytime

    Evidence:
    “if we’re gonna be buying or selling, we have to use a stop loss… manipulation could come in… you getting wrecked and there’s nothing you could have done to prevent it except… have a stop loss.”
    (00:02:22–00:02:58)

    2. C — When there is no large opening range gap

    Evidence:
    “the first indication was it was 50-50 going in ’cause of the lack of a large enough opening range gap.”
    (00:04:21–00:04:29)

    3. B — Because the market returned inside a range after taking sellside liquidity

    Evidence:
    “we traded down to the sellside yesterday… then it came right back up inside the range… the market’s probably gonna try to gravitate towards [equal highs].”
    (00:08:30–00:08:56)

    4. C — Consider the opposite direction and use prior imbalances

    Evidence:
    “if it’s not selling off when it should be selling off, then it’s probably gonna go the other direction… treat them as footholds… it’s gonna be like a springboard.”
    (00:35:00–00:35:35)

    5. D — Reduce leverage because they are over-leveraged

    Evidence:
    “if you can’t absorb retracement… up to three PD arrays… you’re over leveraged.”
    (00:36:40–00:36:59)

    6. B — When price trades one tick above the candle’s opening price

    Evidence:
    “when we see price trade above the opening price of a down close candle… that immediately activates that down close candle… you just need to see it trade above it.”
    (00:41:32–00:43:08)