Summary:

– Current market is range-bound and low-probability: no clear weekly expansion or one‑sided bias, daily price action is stuck in a small balanced range with wicks both up and down. That makes sustained, high-probability moves unlikely right now.

– Criteria for high-probability trades: you must be able to identify where the weekly candle will expand to (higher‑timeframe sponsorship) and the daily range should offer sufficient room (he teaches aiming for a range that can potentially deliver ~10 handles for a 5-handle run). Those conditions are not present.

– Practical advice: preserve capital — don’t force trades in this environment. If the market isn’t giving your model its required signatures, sit out, scalp very small, or use the time to study and backtest. Lucky wins right now are mostly coincidence and can lead to bigger losses if you push.

– Psychology and discipline: trading requires patience and control. Impulsivity is likened to addiction (alcoholism/gambling); remove temptations if needed, keep written rules, and reward yourself for not trading when conditions are poor. Read Alexander Elder’s Trading for a Living for psychological insights.

– Macro context: geopolitical risks, bank instability and structural changes (e.g., CBDCs) elevate risk and reduce institutional willingness to assume new risk, contributing to the market’s stagnation.

– Mentoring stance and personal note: as a mentor he won’t promote trading when his model doesn’t support it — he’s stepped away (traveling in an RV in Florida) to avoid trading impulsively and will return to live analysis when conditions improve (plans to be back on charts next Monday).

Quiz

1) According to ICT, what is the primary criterion you must have to consider a trade a high probability setup?
A. A news catalyst scheduled that day
B. An understanding of where the weekly candle will expand to
C. A gap open on the daily chart
D. Multiple confirmations on one-minute charts

2) What does ICT advise you to do when the market is in a low probability condition?
A. Pyramid into positions to force a win
B. Trade more frequently to find opportunity
C. Sit still or “do something else”
D. Follow every social media signal available

3) For a “high probability five-handle run,” ICT teaches the range should potentially offer how many handles in total?
A. 5 handles
B. 8 handles
C. 10 handles
D. 15 handles

4) Which book does ICT recommend as the best for trading psychology and understanding impulsive behavior?
A. Market Wizards
B. Trading for a Living by Alexander Elder
C. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
D. Thinking, Fast and Slow

5) How does ICT describe the current market state in this talk?
A. Low-resistance liquidity runs with clear direction
B. A balanced trading range with wicks/tails both up and down — a small intraday scalpers market
C. Strong trending market with institutional sponsorship pushing price
D. Purely news-driven volatility with no intraday structure

Answer key with evidence:

Q1 — B. An understanding of where the weekly candle will expand to.
Evidence: “number one you have to have some measure of understanding where that Weekly candle is going to expand to” (00:03:14.640–00:03:31.440). Also reiterated: “that Weekly expansion you have to know where is that Weekly candle the one that you’re in right now … you have to have an expectation” (00:20:17.280–00:20:26.940).

Q2 — C. Sit still or “do something else”.
Evidence: “if the Market’s not giving you something go do something else” (00:03:33.419–00:03:40.800). And: “I have to sit still” (00:11:09.540–00:11:17.240).

Q3 — C. 10 handles.
Evidence: “it needs to have a range to offer at least 10 handles” (00:25:25.919–00:25:41.220). Also: “how many handles does the range have to potentially deliver for you to get a high probability five handle run … 10 handles” (00:25:14.280–00:25:33.960).

Q4 — B. Trading for a Living by Alexander Elder.
Evidence: “the beginning of Alexander Elder’s book trading for a living in my opinion … that is so much better” (01:06:57.240–01:07:04.819). He further discusses the book and its psychological sections (01:07:01.680–01:07:10.460).

Q5 — B. A balanced trading range with wicks/tails both up and down — a small intraday scalpers market.
Evidence: “look at the daily chart you have Wicks and Tails both in up and down in that range” (00:14:56.399–00:15:03.000). And: “so now that means we’re in a scalpers Market” (00:21:00.900–00:21:05.580). Also: “we are in a point of balance … it’s balanced price has traveled up and down in that range both ways” (00:26:23.940–00:27:04.440).