Summary:

– ICT: giving market interpretation after a major geopolitical move (Trump/Pakistan/Iran) that jolted markets after U.S. hours.
– Geopolitical thesis: Administration reportedly delayed strikes (two-week pause/ceasefire conditional on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz). ICT speculates this may be a deliberate tactic to let civilians leave announced targets, then strike later — a temporary lull, not a true de-escalation.
– Market reaction: massive volatility overnight — crude plunged (quoted ~$109 to ~$91), stock index futures spiked, enormous single-minute price swings in futures (hundreds of handles). These moves occurred in off-hours and surprised many traders.
– Primary warning: markets are now highly event-driven and manipulable. If you’re inexperienced, undercapitalized, over-leveraged, or trade without stop losses, you risk catastrophic losses. Treat this year as an education year if unsure.
– Trading stance: speaker remains structurally bullish on crude long-term but expects continued violent, unpredictable swings. He is personally hands-off for now and plans to stop live tape-reading/streaming and shift to educational content to avoid influencing others into risky trades.
– Technical notes (brief): many instruments show price inefficiencies/volume imbalances and potential reclaimed fair-value gaps; watch whether retracements respect the “upper half” of those ranges. Dollar, EUR, GBP, indices, gold, and silver are all disorganized and sensitive to events.
– Practical advice: remove risk (demo/training), use stop losses, don’t chase highlight reels or social-media bragging. Expect more volatility tied to news cycles and overnight sessions; be cautious about trading around geopolitical headlines.
– Personal/ethical note: market moves are tied to real human suffering; this makes trading emotionally difficult. The speaker urges prudence and empathy, and will return to live trading only when conditions make sense.

Summary: acute, event-driven volatility from geopolitical developments has created high-risk trading conditions. The speaker cautions inexperienced traders to stay out or study, uses technical observations to outline possible scenarios, and will step back from live trading to focus on education.

Quiz:

1) What did ICT believe was happening with the two-week ceasefire idea?
A. It was guaranteed to end the conflict immediately
B. It was mainly a way to buy time and let people move away from target areas
C. It was meant to lower gold prices
D. It was only about reopening stock exchanges

Answer Key:

1) B Evidence: “Think about what 2 weeks does. 2 weeks can lull someone into thinking that they got plenty of time.” and “they gave an a reason to to let the people go home and get away from those targets.”