Summary:
– The speaker links recent extreme market moves to geopolitical developments (Trump’s threats to Iran, Pakistan reportedly advising a different course, Iran’s defiance and public positioning around targets). He suggests a possible tactical delay (a two‑week window contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz) may have been used to disperse civilians, buying time for a later strike — but he stresses this is his speculation.
– Crude oil was highly volatile (big gap and a sharp drop from ~$109+ toward the low $90s), but he remains fundamentally bullish on oil — the recent decline may have washed out longs, not ended the uptrend. Oil remains event-driven and can spike quickly if attacks occur.
– Markets are being driven and amplified by headlines and off‑hours moves (stock index futures jumped, crude plunged). Single‑minute candlesticks have moved by hundreds of handles, demonstrating extreme intraday volatility.
– Trading advice and risk warning: stay out of these markets if inexperienced or thinly funded; use stop losses; treat this year as an education year rather than taking big risks. Manipulation/insider positioning can create quick, damaging moves.
– Technical/read‑on‑the‑tape notes: dollar index slipped, euro/pound are mixed (pound showing relative strength), stock futures (MES/MNQ) show bullish structure if they hold above recent upper halves of ranges and inefficiencies; gold/silver also touched inefficiencies but are risky to trade now.
– Because of the volatile, event‑driven environment and his responsibility as an educator, he will scale back live trading/tape‑reading streams and focus on educational content for a while to avoid influencing followers into risky trades.
– He emphasizes the human cost of the conflict, the emotional difficulty of trading such markets, and urges prudence and humility given the high uncertainty.
Quiz
1. According to ICT, what was one reason he believed the announced attack on Iran may not happen immediately?
A. The markets had already closed for the week
B. Pakistan advised a different avenue and people were standing around the targets
C. Crude oil had already reached its final target
D. The Strait of Hormuz had already been opened
2. What did ICT say the market reaction after hours suggested about crude oil and stock index futures?
A. Crude oil rose sharply while stock indices collapsed
B. Both markets stayed unchanged
C. Crude oil dropped hard while stock index futures rallied sharply
D. Gold and silver were the only markets affected
3. What did ICT repeatedly advise inexperienced traders to do in this environment?
A. Trade only with higher leverage
B. Ignore stop losses and hold through volatility
C. Stay away from the market and use the time to study
D. Focus only on shorting crude oil
4. What did ICT say he expected would happen if crude oil moved higher again after the drop?
A. Crude oil would probably stay flat for months
B. Oil prices could rise parabolically if attacks resumed
C. The dollar would instantly collapse to zero
D. Gold would become the only tradable market
5. What was ICT’s view on the possibility of a ceasefire?
A. He believed a ceasefire was fully confirmed and permanent
B. He thought the ceasefire would definitely open the Strait of Hormuz immediately
C. He viewed it as temporary theater and doubted it would last
D. He said the ceasefire would eliminate all market volatility
Answer Key:
1. B
Evidence: “a course of action has been suggested to the Trump administration by Pakistan and a uh They counseled him to consider a different avenue” and “they gave an a reason to to let the people go home and get away from those targets.”
2. C
Evidence: “we’re up 600 plus handles on stock index futures, and crude oil’s down you know, tens of thousands of dollars per contract” and “crude oil opened up on that news. Sold off.”
3. C
Evidence: “If you’re not experienced… this is not your year. I promise you you’re you’re you’re going to regret probably doing anything with it” and “Take this year as an education year. Spend it studying. Learn some concepts. Study. And remove yourself from the risk.”
4. B
Evidence: “if they come back later on and do all the attacks they said and Iran said they were going to respond by hitting everything in the area oil-related and other… that’s going to obviously cause, you know, parabolic rise in oil prices.”
5. C
Evidence: “I don’t foresee the Strait of Hormuz becoming open immediately” and “I just I can’t see 2 weeks… This might be just a temporary little speed bump in what may continue going on” and “It’s all theater. It’s all It’s nonsense. There’s no easy answer to this. It’s a mess.”
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