Summary:
– Market recap: The CPI print was weak and price failed to reach a key daily suspension/block level. The speaker is watching several technical levels — opening-range gap, fair value gaps (FVGs), liquidity sweeps, and rejection/inversion zones — with a bias toward lower prices if certain lows (including the CPI low and midpoint of the opening-range gap) are taken out.
– Technical observations: There’s SMT divergence between the three major averages (ES, NQ, Dow), making price action messy and lowering conviction. ICT refuses to chase longs into a decoupled rally and would prefer to see clean accelerations into sell-side liquidity to confirm downside moves.
– Trade note: He accumulated size into an inversion/fair-value gap, added on retracements, and suffered slippage on an exit near 325. He would lose interest in morning trading if key rejection blocks hold; might look for a lunch or PM session move instead.
– Teaching point: For newer traders, decoupling across indexes complicates market structure and requires caution; high-probability setups rely on agreement among averages and clear one-sidedness.
– Personal incident: While dropping his son off, an aggressive driver confronted him, pulled a gun, then lowered it and called someone. He drove away for safety and may file a report if dashcam evidence exists. Lesson: avoid confrontation and stay safe.
– Wrap-up: He’s ending the live session due to lack of meaningful price action, will post a review later, and plans a Twitter space on Saturday. Wishes viewers a safe, relaxing weekend.
Quiz
1) What was ICT’s main concern about the market direction after the CPI reading?
– A. He was looking to chase the market higher
– B. He expected a guaranteed rally into the close
– C. He was watching for possible downside liquidity to be taken
– D. He believed the market had become completely untradeable
2) How did ICT describe the condition of the three major averages during the session?
– A. They were all perfectly aligned
– B. They were decoupled and not in agreement
– C. They were all making new highs together
– D. They were all closed for the session
Answer Key with Evidence
1) C. He was watching for possible downside liquidity to be taken.
Evidence: “I’m just saying that it could go down here and take that liquidity. This morning, I’ll be watching for that.”
2) B. They were decoupled and not in agreement.
Evidence: “So, already we can see some decoupling. Okay, decoupling is when the averages do not agree.”
Evidence: “You can see clearly this is what decoupling looks like, okay?”
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